Venezuela Signs Agreement for Competitive Presidential Elections, US Expected to Ease Oil Sanctions
Leaders from the government of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the U.S.-backed opposition have signed an agreement, marking a breakthrough in Venezuela’s ongoing political stalemate. The agreement outlines commitments to hold competitive presidential elections next year and is expected to pave the way for the United States to ease oil sanctions on the authoritarian state.
Under the terms of the deal, Maduro has pledged to allow all parties to choose their candidates, allow mission observers from the European Union and the United Nations to oversee the vote, and grant all campaigns fair access to the media. The presidential election is scheduled to take place in the second half of 2024. However, the government did not promise to lift bans that currently prevent some opposition candidates from running.
The agreement was formalized in Barbados during an event facilitated by the Norwegian government, with U.S. representatives present. With the deal finalized, the Biden administration is expected to announce the lifting of some sanctions on Venezuela’s state-controlled oil industry. This could include a general license for American companies to resume business in Venezuela.
However, any sanctions relief would likely be reversible if Maduro fails to comply with his end of the agreement. It is unclear whether the deal could lead to the release of political prisoners in Venezuela.
National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez, who signed the deal on behalf of the Maduro government, called it a “first step toward sanctions … being lifted progressively.” Maduro also expressed optimism, tweeting that the signing of the agreements is a step towards the full lifting of all sanctions.
The agreement comes after multiple failed attempts at negotiations between Maduro’s government and the opposition. It also precedes Venezuela’s opposition parties’ primary election to choose a single candidate to challenge Maduro next year. María Corina Machado, a fierce critic of the government, is currently the clear front-runner but has been banned from running by the Maduro government.
The disqualification of opposition candidates, including Machado, was a significant point of discussion ahead of the agreement. Although the deal promises the participation of all presidential candidates, it states that they must comply with the requirements established by Venezuelan law. The specifics of how banned candidates can recover their rights were not mentioned in the agreement.
Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, described Maduro’s actions as “opening a window.” He emphasized that now it is up to the opposition, with the support of the international community, to push for full compliance.
The ongoing political crisis in Venezuela led to the severing of diplomatic relations between the Trump administration and Maduro’s government in 2019. However, the Biden administration has reached out to mend ties, particularly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. officials have stated that they would consider easing sanctions if Venezuela holds free and fair presidential elections.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves of crude oil, but the state-owned oil company PDVSA has been greatly affected by government mismanagement and U.S. sanctions. Resuming oil trade with Venezuela would be a significant step, as years of crippling sanctions have failed to oust Maduro or resolve the country’s political crisis.
Maduro’s grip on power has strengthened over the years, gaining recognition from foreign governments despite facing investigations by the International Criminal Court and U.S. federal court indictments on charges of narcoterrorism. Earlier this year, Maduro allowed the European Union to monitor local and regional elections, but the observers noted several obstacles to a fair vote.
As Venezuela moves towards competitive presidential elections, the world will be closely watching to see if the agreement leads to lasting change and a resolution to the long-standing political crisis.