2023-10-21 14:23:14
Some 21 million Venezuelans registered on the electoral roll are authorized to participate this Sunday the opposition primary that should pave the way for a common candidate to face at the polls Nicolas Maduro in the elections scheduled for the second half of 2024. The internal election tests in more ways than one the political agreement that the Madurismo and its adversaries signed in Barbados last Tuesday with the sponsorship of Norway, the secret Colombian collaboration and the approval good of the United States and the European Union. By virtue of that understanding, Washington will lift economic sanctions against Caracas gradually to the extent that a transparent contest and with the presence of international observers the coming year. The document signed in Barbados is clear in this regard by defending the “right of each political actor to freely select his candidate for the presidential elections.”
It is that same paragraph of a broad and ambitious text that must show its viability in this primary in which 11 candidates participate, but, according to previous estimates, it has a sure winner: the far-right María Corina Machado, who has clearly taken distance from the Bridgetown agreements. The flag bearer of Vente Venezuela had been disqualified by the Comptroller’s Office from holding elective positionss when the internal conflict broke out, in 2014. Elvis Amoroso, who currently heads the National Electoral Council (CNE), accused her of promoting external sanctions against the Miraflores Palace. Last June, the sanction, which had ceased years ago, was extended for another 15 years. At that time the engines of the primary school were just warming up, but Machado was already beginning to suggest herself as a potential favorite of hers.
After the handshake in Barbados between representatives of the Government and the opposition Several political prisoners were released in Caracas. Washington has welcomed this step taken by the Miraflores Palace. Some analysts believe, however, that if Machado wins the primaries and the ban is maintained, tensions may resurface.
Sinuous road
The process that led to the primaries was not without problems. Last week, Henrique Capriles, another of the leaders who has been disqualified by the Comptroller’s Office, dropped out of the competition. With his gesture he said he wanted to contribute to the appointment of a consensual candidate that was not limited by a state measure. Machado looked away. “On October 22 we are going to vote strongly because it is the first step to defeat Maduro and to the accomplices and corrupt people on both sides, you choose the candidate, not the regime,” the candidate asked on the eve of the primary. “Those of us who are here and those who are outside, give that day to Venezuela, go out and vote very early and stay awake, defend your vote and count piece by piece. We have to take care of this golden opportunity because the same people as always want to steal it from us.”
On Friday night, Democratic Action (AD, social democrat) asked the National Primary Commission (CNP) this Friday to postpone the internal election due to alleged irregularities that, according to the formation, “make it impossible to carry out the day normally. The CNP authority, Jesús María Casal, actually rejected that request by calling on citizens to participate massively in 3,000 voting centers throughout Venezuela and in 77 cities in 28 countries. Some 55,000 Venezuelans are able to do so in Spain. “The primary from day one has wanted to be a mechanism to reconcile Venezuelans. It is the opportunity to participate in the construction of a unitary candidacy.”
Possible scenarios
Anti-maturism decided to carry out this process without CNE support. The management of the electoral body had made it a condition of technical assistance that the primary be held at the end of November.
One way or another, the apparently settled result of this internal election will define the way in which the disputes between the opposition and the Government will be raised. Analyst Luis Vicente León does not doubt Machado’s resounding victory. “There was not a single moment throughout the entire negotiation process, neither informally nor formally, in which the Venezuelan government produced any type of authorization negotiation”. The leader of Vente Venezuela has two alternatives if the predictions of her victory are confirmed: proclaim herself the winner and call to ignore the ban on the street, blowing up the Barbados agreement, or step aside, like Capriles. Her statements do not invite us to imagine the second outcome. Machado, some observers say, will wait for the United States’ reactions.
León calls for closely following the name of the candidate who comes in second place in the primary, as long as he or she obtains a significant vote. “He will demand the right to be the unitary candidate to replace the disqualified person, if he fails to register.”
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