2023-10-22 23:20:14
Israel cries out for revenge after the Hamas carnage on October 7 that left 1,400 Israelis dead and 212 kidnapped. Since then, the Army has punished the Strip with the harshest bombings in memory, having already killed almost 4,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, and displaced more than a million people. The guns speak at a thunderous volume that barely leaves room for mediation, but countries like Egypt, Turkey and, above all, Qatar, are pulling their strings to achieve some progress. The ceasefire seems distant because Israel is determined to overthrow the Hamas government, or at least promote a process that leads to its replacement, and efforts are focused on the release of the hostages.
On Friday, Hamas released Judith and Natali Raanan, a mother and daughter of American nationality. The Islamists took this step for “humanitarian reasons” and thanks to the “mediation of Qatar”, according to their own statement. The small Gulf country has a direct connection with Hamas since its political leaders are in Doha and in recent years have financed the Strip by taking charge of paying the salaries of officials. “Qatar’s role is as difficult as it is important because the United States needs to have contact with Hamas and this is the direct path,” says Marc Owen Jones, professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Hamad bin Khalifa University in Doha.
Owen does not see a ceasefire close and warns that “the greatest danger to the negotiation is the radical sectors in the US and Israel that do not even want to hear the word ‘mediation’.” These sectors are betting on war. A ceasefire, even if temporary, will only come when Israel is satisfied with her revenge.
Erdogan, weakened
Another country with a direct connection to Hamas is Türkiye. Ismael Haniye was in Istanbul on the morning of October 7 and his office released a video of the political leader at the time of prayer. Haniye prayed while the armed wing of the militia massacred Israeli civilians in the kibbutzim. “The Government invited him to leave the country as soon as possible and he did so,” recalls Turkish journalist Isin Elicin, one of the country’s most experienced voices in the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
Haniye left for Doha and Recep Tayyip Erdogan began to work on the new scenario that was being drawn in Gaza. «The problem is that all this has surprised Erdogan in a moment of weakness. Turkey was trying to normalize relations with Israel, the embassy had been reopened and a visit from Netanyahu was even expected,” Elicin points out. Despite massive mobilizations of support for Palestine on the streets of Istanbul, Turkey has cooled ties with Hamas and Erdogan has moderated his rhetoric. The president seeks to maintain the difficult balance between not endangering his recent thaw with Israel with support for the Palestinian cause and this path posits him as a mediator.
The Turkish journalist highlights the role that the current Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, can play, “a great expert on all the ins and outs because he was previously responsible for the Intelligence services.” The efforts of the head of Turkish diplomacy, who has traveled to Cairo and Beirut, have focused on the hostages and alleviating the humanitarian crisis. In statements to the media he commented on a peace plan that would consist of establishing a system of guarantees and said that Turkey could play the role of guarantor for the Palestinian side. Ankara has also moved at the regional level by establishing contact with Iran and Lebanon to prevent the expansion of the conflict to other points.
Paul Levin, director of the Faculty of Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, thinks that Erdogan maintains a more moderate tone than in previous Israeli operations in Gaza and highlights the weight that Turkey can have in future mediation since “it is a country “which has normalized its relations with Israel while having direct contact with Hamas.”
The Egyptian future
Unlike Turkey and Qatar, Egypt keeps its distance from Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood has suffered enormous repression at the hands of Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. The president tried, unsuccessfully, to promote a temporary ceasefire during the summit held this weekend in Cairo, where leaders from 34 countries and international organizations took part.
The geographical location and the Rafah crossing make the Egyptians a key actor. Its authorities seek stability and security on its border with Gaza and it is becoming increasingly difficult for them. «There is concern about the plans of Israeli extremist sectors who want to empty the Strip of Palestinians and drive them to the Sinai, a plan that Egypt rejects. “Palestinians have the right to live on their land,” considers Egyptian analyst Mustafa Kamel Al Sayyid, professor of Political Science at Cairo University.
This plan to reduce the presence of Palestinians in Gaza “has started with the army’s order to evacuate the north of the Strip and the next step will be in the south because there is no way to put so many people there,” says Al Sayyid.
In all previous crises it has always been Egypt that has managed to silence the guns and establish temporary pauses of calm between the two sides. «This is not another regular round of violence, it is an all-out war. Therefore, Egypt’s role in mediation is different,” considers Ofir Winter, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. Winter highlights that Egypt faces potential risks, such as large numbers of Gaza residents who could ask to leave the Strip through the Rafah border crossing. On the other, it can “gain greater influence over the future of Gaza, which would serve its political, economic and security interests.”
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