2023-10-23 07:25:00
Sergio Massa, Peronist candidate for the presidency of Argentina, after winning the first round of the elections. His rival in the second round will be the ultra Javier Milei MARIANA NEDELCU | Reuters
The official candidate, current Minister of the Economy, obtained 36.6% of the votes. He took a six-point lead over the ultraliberal candidate. The final vote will be on November 19. The traditional right will not be present: Patricia Bullrich came third with 23% of the votes
23 oct 2023 . Updated at 7:50 a.m.
Argentina I lived the election day of the first round of the presidential elections with the same intensity as the World Cup in Qatar. The uncertainty was total and the results, as happened with the PASO (open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries) on August 13, were surprising again.
The official candidate and current Peronist Minister of Economy, Sergio Massaobtained 36.6% of the votes and gained a six-point advantage over the ultraliberal Javier Miley (30%), with whom he will face in a second round on November 19. The candidate of Together for Change (the traditional right), Patricia Bullrich came in third place, with 23.8% of the votes. With a participation of 77.65% in the census, more than 25 million people went to the polls.
Although most polls indicated a second round scenario between Milei and Massa, it is expected that first place will be from the ultraliberal and not from the official party. But Argentine politics always surprises. Peronism recovered, returns, and can turn the game around with more than overwhelming results in this first round.
Milei’s extreme right, on the contrary, did not win votes between the PASO of August and now: in 18 of 24 jurisdictions La Libertad Avanza obtained a lower percentage of votes than in the PASO. The drop was more pronounced in the provinces where it had done best: Salta, San Luis and Chubut (where it had exceeded 40%). On the other hand, Union por la Patria improved its percentage of votes with respect to the PASO in 22 of 24 electoral jurisdictions (all provinces and the city of Buenos Aires).
Official victory in the Province of Buenos Aires
In the official sector, one of the winners of the day is Axel Kicillof, re-elected governor of the Province of Buenos Aires with 45% of the votes compared to 26% for Nstor Grindetti, the candidate of Together for Change, and 24 % of Carolina Pparo, the candidate of La Libertad Avanza. The province does not have a second round, it represents 37% of the electoral roll, it is the Kirchnerist stronghold par excellence, and the results provide a historic election for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s former Minister of Economy.
If there will be a second round, it is in the city of Buenos Aires. Together for Change has survived in its stronghold for 16 years, but it is not enough for victory. Jorge Macri, Mauricio’s cousin, was less than one point away from taking victory in the first round, he obtained 49.6% (he did not reach 50%) of the votes and must face the Union candidate for the second round. Patria, Leandro Santoro, who obtained 31%. Ramiro Marra, Milei’s candidate, came in third place with 14% of the votes.
The future of the traditional right
Bullrich’s results did not cause major surprises, it was practically a given that he was the one who had the most to lose in the polarization of the vote between Milei and Massa. His campaign was not brilliant. And he did not even have the support of one of the top leaders of his party, the former Argentine president Mauricio Macri, who made more signs of support for Milei than did her own candidate.
The defeat of Together for Change will surely provoke a restructuring of the party, if it manages to rearm itself. Bullrich admitted defeat and called to vote against populism and against Massa.
However, the tough confrontations between Bullrich and Milei in the final stretch of the campaign make it difficult to think of any explicit support from the former security minister for the libertarian candidate, but everything remains to be seen. We will also have to wait to see what fate Bullrich’s votes have for the second round, especially from the most centrist wing of the party.
Javier Milei, libertarian candidate for the presidency of Argentina, after being second in the first round. He will face the Peronist Javier Massa in the second MATIAS BAGLIETTO | REUTERS
Milei’s worst week
Milei and her party probably had the worst last week of the campaign. After the PASO elections, and with a lot of consulting work involved, Milei had managed to appear more moderate. He distanced himself from the character full of outbursts and controversies with which he became famous on social networks and the media. But in the last few days, both he and several members of his force lost their tempers. The candidate for deputy Lilia Lemoine announced a paternity renunciation bill that would allow men to decide whether or not they want to take financial responsibility for their children. Alberto Benegas Lynch, Milei’s ideological mentor, spoke of breaking diplomatic relations with the Vatican and privatizing the sea.
Milei also raised a scenario of economic destabilization by proposing to withdraw fixed terms in pesos from banks, and stirred up a hyperinflation scenario that caused a currency exchange fever and caused the value of the dollar to skyrocket.
Massa, the candidate who competes against the minister
What about Massa is surprising because, in some way, the candidate is competing against the minister. Massa is supported by his career, but his membership in a Government that is held responsible for the current situation plays against him.
Throughout the entire campaign he was the most proactive candidate and the one who, given his status as minister, took some measures that had an immediate impact on the pockets of a large part of the population, such as the removal of VAT for the purchase of products from the basic shopping basket, or actions against the black markets for buying and selling dollars, which allowed it to lower the value of this currency and have greater control of a market with a high impact on prices.
It is always difficult to predict the behavior of the electorate, but the first round of the elections in Argentina showed that no one can remain calm nor has a captive vote. Massa spoke publicly after Bullrich and Milei, and conveyed a message to this effect. She differed from his opponent, but she also became clearer in his proposals. Milei chose to insist on the confrontation with Kirchnerismwith the same tone as Bullrich throughout the campaign and which clearly did not give him good results.
Filed in: Argentina Buenos Aires Mauricio Macri Cristina Kirchner
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