2023-10-23 22:45:00
The first place of Sergio Massa, Argentine minister for a suffering economy (138% inflation), in the first round of the presidential election surprised and slowed the rise of the “anti-system” ultraliberal Javier Milei.
Fear of the unknown may have played a role, but uncertain postponements and the state of the economy maintain uncertainty for the second round, analysts believe.
Here are some keys to an unexpected political panorama and the prospects for the duel on November 19.
Milei, has fear won?
A self-confessed “disclaimer” against the “political caste” in power incapable of taming inflation, an omnipresent “enemy of the State”, Javier Milei has “made himself popular above all through his anti-establishment rhetoric”, recalls Benjamin Gedan, specialist of Argentina at the Wilson Center think tank.
But the “chainsaw” against public spending that he brandished at meetings ended up worrying. “The fact is that at the end of the chainsaw, there are jobs, public services, end-of-month bills, family budgets: many have too much to lose,” he believes.
In addition, Milei may have misjudged “the discrepancy” of his positions “with society” (on the deregulation of firearms, on a market solution to the shortage of organs). Not to mention his comments about the Pope — “Jesuit who promotes communism”, “nefarious character”, “imbecile” – risky remarks regarding an Argentinian pontiff, in a country that is more than 75% Catholic.
In the end “the vote of fear worked, the fear of jumping into the void”, diagnoses political scientist Juan Negri, of Torcuato di Tella University.
Massa: how did he do it?
By multiplying on the one hand social measures to cushion inflation (subsidies, tax exemptions, bonuses) “which have benefited a significant part of the electorate but which could have a serious budgetary cost in the short term”, notes Sergio Morresi, political scientist from the University of Buenos Aires.
On the other hand, by dissociating themselves from the outgoing executive – neither President Alberto Fernandez nor Cristina Kirchner, a Peronist (center-left) figure of the last decade, appeared or spoke during the campaign.
“The next step will be MY government, not THIS government,” insisted Massa, with centrist DNA, much more pragmatic than ideological, and undoubtedly “the least Peronist of the Peronists,” according to Mr. Gedan.
Especially since he played the card of “a government of national unity if elected, an unprecedented proposition in democratic Argentina” and with strong potential for support in a society tired of polarization, assures Raul Timerman independent political analyst.
What postponements, what second round?
Massa’s spectacular “comeback” compared to the August primary (+15%) showed the intact mobilization capacity of the Peronist base, particularly in the populous and crucial province of Buenos Aires. “Peronism has come out of its nap,” summarized Hector Daer, leader of the CGT, the largest union in the country.
Javier Milei is already reaching out to Patricia Bullrich’s center-right coalition, which came third on Sunday (23.8%), and yet is a member of the “political caste” he fought. On Monday, he said he would incorporate Ms. Bullrich, whom he called a “murderer” just two weeks ago, into his government.
The opposition coalition “will break up”, assures Raul Timerman. The support of Mauricio Macri, former liberal president (2015-2019), who has already expressed affinities with the ultraliberal Milei, “will be total”. On the other hand, the radical (social democratic) wing of this coalition, heir to the emblematic post-dictatorship president Raul Afonsin (1983-89) “will not support Milei”.
The economy, still decisive?
This week, Argentina will honor a new repayment deadline to the IMF for its debt of 44 billion dollars. But, underlines the rating agency Moody’s Investors Service, “our base scenario foresees a high and persistent risk of default in 2024-25”.
The parallel rate, a barometer of Argentinean anxiety, deteriorated further on Monday (1,100 pesos to the dollar against 1,060 on Friday, 950 on Thursday) demonstrating skepticism towards a stabilization of the Argentine currency that Milei intends to let die.
“The economic situation remains very fragile and could further deteriorate between now and the second round, in which case the opposition, even with a radical posture, will have a chance of winning,” considers Sergio Morresi.
10/23/2023 22:45:14 – Buenos Aires (AFP) – © 2023 AFP
#Massa #surprise #uncertainty #crisis