Argentine election has polarization between left and right, like the one that occurred in Brazil – Prisma

2023-10-24 04:00:13

The polls got it wrong once again. Now it was with the result of the election for the presidency of Argentina. They pointed to the victory in the first round of conservative candidate Javier Milei, with a small margin over the Peronist candidate, and supported by the current government, Sergio Massa. This would take the presidential election to the second round. There will be a second round, but with the leadership of Massa, who obtained more than 36% of the votes.

The current scenario is that there will be a polarization between left and right, similar to what happened in Brazil. With the result, the two candidates will throw themselves at the other 70% of voters who voted for other candidates, did not show up to vote or canceled their vote. Therefore, the result is unpredictable.

The second round takes place on November 19th, approximately a month ago. The two candidates will strive to convince the electorate that their government proposal is the best to get the country out of the crisis it is experiencing.

Inflation is very high, interest rates are one of the highest in the world, the trade balance is in deficit and the so-called blue dollar is breaking record highs. The platforms already presented show the candidates accusing each other of being responsible for the economic situation of the country, considered in the past a prosperous nation with first world development rates.

It is likely that Argentine voters will analyze the proposals more rationally than occurred in the first round, when emotionalism gained great momentum with debates between the three best-known candidates. This leads us to believe that whoever has the least electoral rejection wins.

Argentina is an important partner for Brazil in Mercosur. There is a robust trade flow between the two nations. Massa promises to continue the policies of his predecessor, current president Alberto Fernandes. He has the support of the Peronist coalition União Pela Pátria, a movement that has practically governed Argentina for the last 20 years.

The other pole, Javier Milei, proposes dollarizing the economy to control inflation of 138% per year. A plan that has already been applied in the past and did not work.

Now it is up to the two candidates in the second round to convince Argentine voters that their proposals are the best for national recovery. They will show that there is a light at the end of the tunnel and not a train speeding in the opposite direction, but a charge on a loan made from the International Monetary Fund, worth billions of dollars, which could lead the economy to default. Translating, I must, I don’t deny it, I pay when I can.

Los Hermanos have seen this movie before.