2023-10-23 22:12:39
Its total destruction Hamas has set as a goal the Israelhowever, given its decentralized structure, the Israeli leadership’s scenarios for its future Gaza Stripremain nebulous and undefined.
“One thing is clear. Gaza will no longer be ruled by Hamas when this war is over,” Israeli government spokesman assures Eilon Levias the Israeli military says it is accelerating preparations for the ground attack.
It is recalled that the Islamist organization took over the administration of the enclave in 2007, after the intra-Palestinian civil war that ended with the expulsion of Fatahof the party of the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.
Israel, which controls the de facto borders of Gaza, is considered by the international community to be responsible for meeting the enclave’s basic needs.
“New Reality”
The population of Gaza, 80% of which already has refugee status, has been living for 16 days under the state of incessant Israeli bombardment, which has caused the death of 4,600 people and he fears that at the end of this war he will be forced to leave the enclave, possibly to Egyptian territory, knowing a new Nakba (catastrophe), as with the 1948 exodus.
Israel has not clarified what will happen to the Gaza Strip if it achieves the goal of “eliminating Hamas”. “We are discussing various possibilities with our partners,” says the Israeli government spokesman.
In 16 years, the Israeli government has never set the goal of “eliminating Hamas”, despite repeated wars in Gaza. In fact, Israel never once invoked the possibility of a new military occupation and even more of a political occupation of the enclave.
No one foresees that Israel will shoulder the responsibility, financial cost and risk of re-establishing Israeli control over a population of 2.4 million Palestinians.
Instead, he trumpets that his ultimate goal is “the end of Israel’s responsibility for the fate of the Gaza Strip and the establishment of a new security reality for the citizens of Israel,” as his defense minister stated for the first time in the Knesset on Friday Israel Joab Gallant.
Two scenarios
Israel would like to “hand over the keys” of the Gaza Strip to a “third party”, which could be the Egypt. However, there is no indication that Cairo would accept such a scenario, which it has rejected for decades, an unnamed Israeli Foreign Ministry source told AFP. Nor is it considered at all likely that any other Arab or Muslim government would accept such a role.
Another scenario, this is promoted by the leader of the Israeli opposition Yair Lapidthe handing over the governance of Gaza to the Palestinian Authoritywith which Israel cooperates in the management of the West Bank.
“But there is no hope that the Palestinian Authority, already extremely unpopular and weakened, can return to Gaza after an Israeli invasion and not be treated as an enemy,” according to Crisis Group experts.
“Americans are babysitting the war council”
Another scenario that can be put on the table, establishing a hybrid international guardianship scheme.
“The version that Israelis and Americans would prefer would be an international scheme together with the Palestinian Authority and with, for example, Saudi Arabian resources, with American or European administrative assistance,” according to Eitan Samir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. But he believes that “in Gaza it will basically be what the Americans decide.”
After the October 7 massacres in southern Israel, “the Americans have entered our war council and you can say that they are overseeing the operations, that is, they are babysitting the council,” says Eitan Shamir.
However, in the face of the absence of plans for the future of Gaza after the much-publicized invasion, Mr Joe Biden asks Israel to think carefully about what to do next.
“There are various ideas about what could come next, but all of that will have to be sorted out even as Israel deals with the current threat,” insisted the US secretary of state. Anthony Blinken.
Source: RES-MPE
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