2023-10-26 07:54:40
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office has just given information unknown to date. He believes there are still about 50 asteroids measuring more than a kilometer in diameter close to Earth to be discovered. They are, furthermore, potentially catastrophic. With what probability can the celestial body impact?
“It is estimated that the impact frequency of asteroids larger than 1 km would be very low, it would be on the order of once every 500,000 years,” says Miguel Santander, astronomer at the National Astronomical Observatory (OAN-IGN). The impact of an asteroid could not therefore pose a relatively great danger due to that frequency, although “it does not mean that it is exactly once every 500,000 years but that it could perhaps occur tomorrow.”
Unknown asteroids could ‘pose danger’
NASA claims that 32,950 asteroids close to Earth have been detected to date. Most of them measure between 140 and 1,000 meters in diameter. On the other hand, he believes there are about 14,000 of that size that remain undetected. “The ones that can pose a danger are the ones we don’t know about,” says the OAN astronomer.
However, the focus now lies on the 854 asteroids that measure more than 1,000 meters from end to end. Of this group there would still be about 50 to be found, according to estimated data from the space agency.
This is the probability of an asteroid impacting Earth
On the other hand, we must take into account the approach of the asteroids to the Earth and their probability of impacting the planet. NASA points out that only when the asteroid is less than 1.3 astronomical units – taking into account that one astronomical unit is equivalent to the distance between the Earth and the Sun – can it be considered close to our planet.
The consequences of an asteroid impact are linked to “its composition and, above all, its size.” For this reason, the information from the Space Agency is relevant, since “from 1 km in size we would be facing an impact with serious consequences,” says Miguel Santander. The astronomer also explains that the material with which asteroids are made can be quite valuable.
Can the asteroid have a double life if it has not disintegrated?
“An asteroid that reaches Earth without disintegrating is called a meteorite.” Depending on the size and speed with which it reaches Earth, it generates some consequences or others. From a more immediate vision linked to the material of asteroids – in reference to those rich in metals – a kind of “mining” could be established.
“It could make what we call rare earths, since they would stop being so rare and so difficult to obtain if we mined,” explains the astronomer. The well-known ‘rare earth’ is the name given to a group of chemical elements with which magnets for wind turbines are manufactured.
The asteroid can also be given a second life if its neodymium, a basic metal for the production of electronic devices, is used. “We could make our devices cheaper” if the material is found in abundance “in the asteroid belts” and is mined, the astronomer considers.
And what happens if it has disintegrated?
On the contrary, the meteorite that falls on Earth “normally leaves a crater” although if it falls into water, its consequences are much greater. “It could cause a tsunami, the shock wave it produces would generate a fireball and a depression wave that could be very damaging,” explains Miguel Santander. Based on the size and composition, it could even cause “high intensity earthquakes.”
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