2023-10-19 07:36:57
The unscrupulous brutality used by the forces of repression in the pay of those in power has so far frustrated attempts to conquer May 13 Square. We can therefore only approve of the decision of the Collective of 11 candidates to renounce this, for the moment. To change the situation, the Collective then decided to continue its journey to the outskirts (Itaosy, Ambohipo, Tanjombato, Anosibe, Ambodimita etc.), without risk of confrontation with the military roadblocks in the city center. No doubt this wise turnaround is the result of negotiations carried out behind the scenes by the FFKM mediators. The side effect is nevertheless the risk of seeing their movement lose its dynamic.
With this new scheme, however, honor is safe for all, in a very Malagasy configuration of marimaritra iraisana. The Collective can show that the struggle and demonstrations continue with determination. The Prefect of Police does not have to tear out the hair he no longer has, because he retains symbolic control of the Place du 13 Mai. The forces of repression avoid further blackening their reputation. The Government can say that democracy exists because people can demonstrate and express themselves.
Pacifist model with limited effectiveness
However, despite its wisdom, this pacifist model has its limits. In Madagascar, political crises do not evolve in the direction desired by the opposition without “animation”. It is undoubtedly on this point that the first fault lines risk appearing within the Collective of 11 candidates. On the one hand, having been involved in 2002, 2009 and 2018, certain candidates know that to keep the crowd mobilized and motivated, major goals are needed that bring people together. Experience shows that only thug methods and the martyrs that this entails can advance the “cause”, as we saw in 2009, and to a lesser extent, in 2002.
On the other hand, there are certainly voices within the Collective who are reluctant to continue clashes with the police, especially after the injury of candidate Andry Raobelina who was on the verge of losing an eye. The singer Dama of the group Mahaleo, support of the candidate Tahina Razafinjoelina, tried last Saturday to convince the press that giving up going to the May 13 Square was not a defeat, but a victory of common sense in order to protect lives. However, even honorable and worthy, this argument will not advance the cause of the 11 candidates against a camp ready to do anything to retain power.
Another aspect not to be overlooked and which constitutes another possible dividing line is that the political weight of the 11 candidates is far from being the same. The Collective’s current strategy brings everyone back to a sort of artificial equal footing, while Andry Rajoelina continues his campaign and takes off. Some could then be tempted either by violence or by accepting the election under current conditions. Marc Ravalomanana has retained a good reservoir of votes from loyal and nostalgic voters. Hajo Andrianainarivelo and Roland Ratsiraka also have a history as former candidates with a respectable electoral base, especially in the regions. Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko was on the momentum of his Mihava Tour, the suspension of which can only harm him by breaking a dynamic in his favor and in which he has invested for more than six months. Other candidates, more or less predisposed to being zero points, could be tempted by violence, because they know that a transition is the only chance for them to participate in power.
The international community, last chance before civil war?
If the 11 candidates choose to renounce violence, the only option remaining for them to influence the authorities in the direction of cleaning up the electoral system is lobbying the international community. However, it is a risky bet, in front of a Government which has already shown its lack of scruples in achieving its ends, and whose puppet master has already shown since 2009 his lack of consideration for International Law. Institutional coup d’état, overthrow of the President of the Senate under false pretexts, brutal repression under the pretext of legalism, repeated delay of the SADC mission etc. : nothing is exaggerated to protect the interests of a clan which does not really want an alternation to lift the lids of pots which are undoubtedly far from clean.
To all this has been added a new element for a few days. At the initiative of the whimsical MP Raholdina, then developed by other “strategists” from lower-level neighborhoods, anti-opposition demonstrations emerged and broke the peaceful side of the parades of the Collective of 11 candidates since he renounced the conquest of May 13. Indeed, provocations and abuses against civilians have increased due to pro-Rajoelina. Things had to get worse for the police to finally decide yesterday to do their job, in other words to intervene between warring parties to avoid clashes. If this is an a priori reflex in civilized countries where the security forces are neutral and professional, in Madagascar we had to wait two or three days. We are even tempted to say that it is the increasingly cautious attention of the international community which ultimately led to this hypocritical behavior.
In this crab soup which sees the flourishing of different names of birds which only stir up the tension, we still wonder if there is still room for reason, or if we must prepare like in the planes before a crash. Brace for impact?
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