Title: Joe Biden Faces Concerns over Dropping Poll Numbers and Electability in 2024
Subtitle: Local and statewide elections in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania serve as important indicators for Biden’s popularity ahead of the next presidential race.
In a potential rematch against former President Donald Trump next year, Democratic strategists are becoming increasingly divided over Joe Biden’s ability to secure re-election. The mounting legal troubles faced by Trump have not alleviated concerns about Biden’s drooping poll numbers, with the outcomes of crucial local and statewide elections possibly influencing voters’ perceptions heading into 2024.
On Tuesday, voters will cast their ballots in Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, marking significant bellwether races. Republican victories in these races could amplify concerns about Biden’s chances in 2024, while strong performances by Democrats may alleviate doubts surrounding his re-election prospects.
Over the weekend, David Axelrod, a former political strategist for Barack Obama, raised alarm bells about Biden’s electability in a post on X (formerly Twitter). Axelrod’s concerns were sparked by a recent New York Times/Siena poll that revealed Trump’s potential victory over Biden in five out of six critical battleground states.
However, several Democrats pushed back against the pessimism surrounding Biden’s campaign. Jim Messina, a senior campaign strategist for Obama, dismissed the early polls’ accuracy, emphasizing that the true test lies in winning over voters in November 2024 rather than relying on poll responses in November 2023.
Critics of Axelrod’s suggestion that Biden should bow out argue that it is unrealistic and point out Axelrod’s past underestimation of Biden’s chances of winning four years ago. Ron Klain, Biden’s former White House chief of staff, took aim at Axelrod on X, referring to him as a character who consistently underestimates Biden’s capabilities.
Nonetheless, recent polls have revealed concerning weaknesses for Biden. Voters remain apprehensive about his age, with Biden turning 81 on November 20, and rate his performance lower than Trump’s on numerous issues, including the economy. Additionally, there are signs of Biden losing support among crucial segments of the Democratic base, such as black and Hispanic voters.
Anthony Coley, a former senior justice department official under Biden, expressed worry about the trend of declining poll numbers and urged fellow Democrats to take the poll and its implications seriously rather than dismissing them as typical Democratic concerns.
Biden’s diminishing poll numbers coincide with a growing rift within the Democratic Party over his handling of the Middle East crisis. Progressives accuse him of displaying excessive support for Israel in its conflict with Hamas while neglecting the need to minimize civilian casualties.
Despite these challenges, Biden still maintains a lead on the issue of abortion, which strategists believe will mobilize voters. Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic strategist, highlights that women, in particular, prioritize abortion rights, emphasizing that access to healthcare outweighs the significance of other issues like the economy.
As the elections unfold in Kentucky, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, it remains to be seen how the outcomes will shape public sentiment towards Biden. Democrats are hopeful that the contrast between Biden and Trump, which played in Biden’s favor in 2020, will become even more apparent in the coming year.
Kevin Munoz, a spokesperson for Biden’s campaign, affirms their efforts in reaching and mobilizing the diverse coalition of voters. Meanwhile, Matt Bennett, a former adviser to Bill Clinton, anticipates that Trump’s re-emergence into voters’ lives leading up to the elections will influence their decision-making process.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, Biden and his supporters are grappling with the challenges posed by waning poll numbers, diverging opinions among Democratic strategists, and key local races that offer insights into the electorate’s sentiments ahead of the 2024 elections.