2023-11-08 07:01:06
The foundations of an offshore wind farm approved by the Joe Biden administration, in Portsmouth (in the state of Virginia), October 27, 2023. HANDOUT / DOMINION ENERGY / AFP
The abandonment of fossil fuels could be, for the first time, one of the central topics of the annual global climate negotiations. The stakes are immense: while 90% of CO2 emissions originate from the extraction and combustion of coal, oil and gas, States still plan to produce, in 2030, more than double the quantity of fossils. compatible with the objective of limiting warming to 1.5°C – and therefore avoiding the most devastating effects of the crisis.
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A few weeks before the opening of the 28th world climate conference (COP28), scheduled from November 30 to December 12 in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), the “ Production Gap Report » underlines, once again, the extent of the gap between the projects of the main fossil producing countries and the essential reduction in production advocated by scientists and civil society.
“This report is complementary to the work that focuses on demand, explains Michael Lazarus, director of the American branch of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and one of the main authors of this work. On the demand side, we need alternatives to fossils and these alternatives have grown remarkably in recent years. But if we do not also move forward on the production side, our ability to lead the transition will be compromised. »
Even greater gap by 2050
To produce this report, published Wednesday November 8, experts from the United Nations Environment Program, SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G and the International Institute for Sustainable Development analyzed the energy roadmaps of ten -nine of the twenty largest fossil producers (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and United States – data for South Africa was not available). These countries alone account for more than 80% of total fossil fuel production.
According to the plans of these States, overall coal production should be, in 2030, 460% higher than the level compatible with the median scenario making it possible to respect the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement. Oil production would be 29% higher, and gas production 82% higher.
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By 2050, the gap between anticipated production and the adequate level to limit warming is even greater. “Compared to our previous assessments, the magnitude of this gap remains largely unchanged despite encouraging signs of a transition to clean energy, find Ploy Achakulwisut, do SEI. The persistence of this gap jeopardizes the possibility of a well-managed and equitable transition and conflicts with governments’ climate commitments. »
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