2023-11-08 14:27:10
Briefly:
During the forum in Berlin, an alliance of parliamentary groups “For a Democratic Belarus” is created. Their activities will be coordinated. Lukashenko saw certain opportunities on the horizon, which he believes create favorable conditions for thawing relations with the West. Minsk is not going to change anything in its foreign and domestic policy. The calculation is made solely on the fact that something will change in the politics of Western countries. Lukashenka’s proposal to start talking with neighbors is accompanied by very aggressive rhetoric. If the partner in the supposed dialogue simultaneously receives opposite, mutually exclusive signals, he cannot react to them seriously. According to official Minsk, there are no actions. More precisely, there are actions, but they completely contradict Lukashenka’s statements.
On November 7, an important event for the democratic forces of Belarus took place in Berlin. The forum of the parliamentary groups “For a democratic Belarus”, which exist in the parliaments of 22 European countries, took place there. And not only European ones. For example, support groups were created in the USA, Georgia. They have different legal status, number of friends. But they in one way or another influence the policy of their authorities regarding Belarus. This is a pro-Belarusian lobby in the countries of Europe and the West. Sviatlana Tsikhanovskaya, the leader of the democratic forces of Belarus, made a speech at the forum.
During the forum in Berlin, the creation of the alliance of parliamentary groups “For a democratic Belarus” began. Their activities will be coordinated. Regular meetings of these groups are quite real.
The problem is that the more disturbances and wars occur in the world, the harder it is to keep the Belarusian topic on the international agenda. The Alliance of Parliamentary Groups “For a Democratic Belarus” will help solve this problem, keep a finger on the political pulse of the country, and voice the messages of the Belarusian democratic community.
It is interesting that lately the official Minsk is trying to remind about itself in the western direction. Everyone paid attention to the fact that in his public statements, Alexander Lukashenko speaks more and more often about the desire to start some kind of dialogue with EU countries, first of all, with neighbors. Why suddenly?
On the one hand, the existence of problems that need to be solved is pressing. And on the other hand, according to the official Minsk, if not a window, then a fortress of opportunities opens, which it would be a sin not to use.
If we talk about problems, the most important one is this certain misunderstanding with China. All experts noticed Lukashenka’s absence at the third “One Belt One Road” forum in Beijing in October. This is a symptom of the fact that China is not satisfied with the impasse in Belarus’ relations with the EU, especially with its Western neighbors. This situation has a negative impact on the economic interests of the PRC and Chinese transit. The meaning of the signal that Lukashenka received from Beijing is roughly as follows: something must be done about it.
In addition, Lukashenka saw on the horizon some forts of opportunities that create favorable conditions for thawing relations with the West. First of all, it is the war in the Middle East, which diverted attention from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, increased anti-Israeli and, at the same time, anti-American sentiments in the Muslim world, in general in the countries of the global South (see the vote in the UN General Assembly). Moscow and Minsk hope that the war in the Middle East will cause a new migrant crisis, which will spill over into Europe, create huge problems for the European Union countries, and as a result, they will not have Ukraine.
In the West, the media write that society is tired of the war in Ukraine, of the need to spend resources to support Kiev. The more anti-Ukrainian position of Hungary and the victory of pro-Russian forces in Slovakia became echoes of these sentiments. The likely coming to power of the opposition as a result of the parliamentary elections in Poland, as Lukashenko said, is also a positive moment for the relations between the neighbors. Together with Minsk, Moscow expects that Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections will radically change the balance of power in favor of Russia and Belarus. Therefore, as they believe in Minsk, it is necessary to make some attempts for a possible dialogue.
However, there are big doubts that the dialogue can start in the near future. Firstly, Minsk is not going to change anything in its foreign and domestic policy. The calculation is made solely on the fact that something will change in the politics of Western countries.
Secondly, Lukashenka’s proposals to start talking with neighbors are accompanied by very aggressive rhetoric. He calls the leaders of Poland and Lithuania “despicable”, “crazy”, enraged”. Accuses them of preparing aggression, killing migrants in large numbers and throwing them across the border with Belarus, etc. So offers are not made. If the partner in the supposed dialogue simultaneously receives opposite, mutually exclusive signals, he cannot react to them seriously. Such offers do not work.
Thirdly, there are no actions behind the words. More precisely, there are actions, but they completely contradict Lukashenka’s statements. Militaristic fever, which indicates the preparation of the country for a real war; deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus; Redeployment of “Wagner” PMC to Belarus; attack on neighbors with the help of migrants; the threat to place another (third) reactor at the Astravetsia NPP is a demonstration of unkindness. If they want a dialogue, they make some peace-loving gestures, not the other way around. Moreover, these gestures do not even require any significant changes in politics. For example, stopping the migrant crisis or freeing Andrzej Pachobut, in fact, costs almost nothing for the Belarusian authorities.
And since demand and supply in relations between Belarus and the West do not coincide, we cannot count on any changes.
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