2023-11-09 13:02:30
After an unprecedented series of meteorological records worldwide this year, it is now scientifically documented: the past twelve months since November 2022 have been statistically the hottest one-year period on earth since meteorological measurements began. A day after researchers from the European climate monitoring service Copernicus announced the warmest October ever recorded worldwide while also announcing that 2023 will “almost certainly be the warmest year on record” overall, an international team of climatologists confirmed the connection to man-made climate change.
In the past twelve months, global temperatures averaged 1.3 degrees above pre-industrial levels. 99 percent of humanity – the only exceptions were the residents of Iceland and Lesotho – experienced above-average temperatures. Extreme conditions were particularly widespread: Over the course of the year, 90 percent of all people experienced at least ten days with high temperatures, which have become significantly more likely due to climate change. A good 5.7 billion people were exposed to record heat for at least thirty days, the occurrence of which was made three times more likely due to the influence of climate-damaging greenhouse gases.
Heat waves lasting three or more weeks
More than half a billion people in two hundred cities experienced heat maximums over many days that would be highly unlikely without man-made climate change. The residents of many metropolises with a population of millions, such as Houston in Texas, New Orleans or Jakarta, were particularly burdened by extreme temperatures with heat waves lasting three or more weeks.
The figures published by the American climate research organization Climate Central are based on a so-called mapping study. This method, which allows a causal connection between weather and environmental data to be statistically quantified, was developed by an international research group led by the German climatologist Friederike Otto, who works in England. Weather scenarios are calculated for different worlds – one with and one without global warming due to climate change. In this way, we can show which weather conditions have become more likely due to climate change.
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The authors of the study expect further heat records. Karsten Haustein from the University of Leipzig says: “New global temperature records will be set in both 2023 and probably 2024. We are talking about a temperature level that we have not seen on this planet for over 120,000 years. This is truly a new era in the global climate, in which the 1.5 degree limit is getting closer and closer.” The El Niño heat anomaly, which began in the middle of the year and originates in the tropical eastern Pacific, will last at least until April 2024. According to most experts, it is likely to result in the Paris Climate Agreement’s target of 1.5 degrees of maximum warming compared to pre-industrial levels being exceeded for the first time – although not permanently.
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