2023-11-12 20:22:00
Milei and Massa participate in debate Reproduction/Youtube The candidates for the Presidency of Argentina, the Peronist Sergio Massa and the ultraliberal Javier Milei, face each other this Sunday (12) in the only debate before the second round on November 19th. With such an uncertain scenario, in which the dispute promises to be vote by vote, this will be an essential debate to attract undecided voters, according to analysts. Milei reinforced that he plans to end the local Central Bank. “The central bank is what generates inflation,” said Milei, in response to Massa when asked about his proposal to dollarize the Argentine economy. Education and Health were the themes of the third thematic axis, the theme in which the two are most distant. Milei advocates that all services be privatized and vouchers be distributed to those who cannot pay. Massa, as a Peronist, is in favor of a stronger State that offers these services. Milei bet on presenting poverty figures, citing that thousands of Argentine children do not finish school. Massa, on the other hand, bet on accusing Milei of planning to close Argentine public universities – which are free. When asked whether the libertarian will close them, he replied: “In the short term, no.” Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri became the focus at the end of the discussions. Milei tries to give Massa the image of a Kirchnerist and, therefore, a continuation of the current government. Massa accused Milei of associating himself with Juntos pela Change, Macri’s coalition, whose party declared support for the libertarian. “Today they abandoned you,” said Massa, alluding to the fact that neither Macri nor Patricia Bullrich attended the debate. See also International Macri, Vargas Llosa and eight former Latin American presidents express support for Milei International Javier Milei rejects meeting with Lula if he is elected president of Argentina Economy See how the presidential election in Argentina affects the Brazilian economy The thematic axis was Argentina’s relationship with the world. Massa opened by citing good relations with Brazil and China, the pope’s visit to Argentina and Argentina’s claim to the Falkland Islands. Topics dear to Milei, who has already stated that she does not dialogue with “communists”, as Lula and Xi Jinping have already classified. Milei calls Mercosur a “nuisance” when trying to trade with China and Brazil. The libertarian says that the statements made by Massa’s campaign that he will cut relations with these countries are false and defends that the market itself regulates these relations. “Brazil and China, will you maintain relations or not? Why did he call both presidents communists”, asked Massa. Milei responded that Alberto Fernández had no relationship with former president Jair Bolsonaro. “You belong to a government where Alberto Fernández didn’t speak to Bolsonaro, what’s the problem if I speak or don’t speak to Lula?”, asked Milei. What Massa countered by saying that he visited the former president as a minister. Campaign This entire second phase of campaigns has been based on fear: Massa’s, the fear of what represents a political novelty with explosive ideas such as ultraliberal. Javier Milei has explored the fear of economic and social disaster that represents the continuity of Peronism in the figure of Sergio Massa, Minister of Economy. The highlight of the second round has been the advertising pieces produced by Brazilian marketers linked to the PT, which associate a Milei victory with weapons and the end of rights. Massa bets on the fear that Milei will be complete anarchy and instability. Milei, on the other hand, is betting on the fear that Argentina will continue on the same path that has put it in an infinite economic crisis and a possible future security crisis. “Fear is the emotion that plays in these elections. These are campaigns of fear versus fear. There is also hope, and in this sense Milei awakens more hope in his electorate than Massa, but this is definitely not the preponderant emotion”, explains political scientist Pablo Touzon. “And they are different fears. Milei awakens fear of anarchy, while Massa awakens fear of hegemony. Massa is seen as a man obsessed with power. The question is to see which fear prevails most”, he adds. The strategies Not surprisingly, Milei has invested in pieces with the motto “freedom or kirchnerism”. He absorbed the motto of “change” brought by the Together for Change coalition, which now supports libertarianism through the leadership of Patricia Bullrich and Mauricio Macri against the continuity of the governments of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner, the latter an active character in his programs . “This election is about whether we change or whether we keep in power the same people who ruined our lives,” says his latest campaign piece. Massa uses Milei’s own speeches to produce his advertising, citing the maintenance of public health and education, “an Argentina without weapons” and without the sale of organs. “An Argentina is coming with a heart so big that it would never sell its organs”, says the last spot. In his motto, his Presidency would be stability and “something to be expected”, while his opponent would be an unknown surprise. The Peronist has also been betting on using Argentina’s relations with Brazil, both in his advertisements and in statements to the press. He insists that Milei intends to break ties, which, in his words, would be a disaster for jobs in Argentina. The ultraliberal does not exactly talk about breaking off relations, but is in favor of the State not acting in this commercial flow; he defends direct dialogue between businesspeople and each other. Milei’s recent statements about Lula, when he called him a “communist”, also became campaign ammunition. “The main dilemma for voters is whether Massa will be able to become president without having Cristina’s tutelage [Kirchner], like what we have experienced in the last four years, a president who needs to ask permission for everything. A protected Presidency”, says the political scientist at the Argentine Catholic University, Fabian Calle. “While on Milei’s side, the concern is whether he will be able to govern, whether he will be able to control the streets, confront all sectors, or whether they will want to overthrow him. I think this worries a lot of undecided people, who will ultimately decide these elections,” he continues. On Wednesday (8), a debate took place between the candidates for vice president: Agustin Rossi for Massa’s coalition and Victoria Villarruel for Milei’s list. The two raised the tone at various times, an atmosphere that should be a preview of what will happen this Sunday. The libertarian focused on exposing the errors of Peronist management, while Rossi focused on the human rights agenda. The impact of debates Historically, debates do not tend to change voters’ mood in a strong way, according to analyzes carried out by the UBA Pulsar Observatory. In the case of the first rounds, they help to leverage smaller candidates, as happened with Juan Schiaretti and Myriam Bregman, who became better known nationally, and help to draw the ideological lines in dispute. In a study conducted in 2019, during the dispute between Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández, the observatory noted that the presidential debates served to motivate the electorate to learn about the candidates’ proposals and decide to vote, but the impacts ended up being marginal, with the majority of the already decided electorate. Furthermore, the dispute focused on two traditional lines, Peronism and Macrism. But now, with the scenario of a technical tie between the candidates, the impact tends to be more significant. The first round debates already showed that this election would be different and that television exposure could play a greater role. Instead of two main lines, there were three, with Patricia Bullrich also in play, and sometimes with the same constituency contesting. “In more competitive environments, changes in preferences are more likely to have an impact on candidates’ positions,” explained Facundo Cruz, general coordinator of the Pulsar Observatory. Now, the expectation is that the audience will be record, surpassing the previous one. “I believe it will be an important debate. The previous one had a lot of audience, more than 4 million people, some say up to 5 million. This will certainly be equal or greater, and, in an election as disputed as this one, even decisive”, says Calle. “In general, the debates do not move the ampere meter much in Argentina, but, given the serious doubts that the population has, a small but decisive percentage can indeed affect it.” The latest voting intention polls consolidate a scenario of a technical tie between the candidates, with Milei leading the majority of them. In practically all scenarios, whose differences vary from 2 to 4 percentage points, the dispute will be vote by vote, and the decision will be up to those who are undecided and left to choose at the last minute. The website La Politica Online, which groups together electoral polls and takes an average of them, shows that Sergio Massa has an average vote of 43%, with his minimum varying from 36.46% to 49.49%. Milei has an average of 43.8% of voting intentions, with a variation from 35.48% to 52.14%.
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