2023-11-14 13:00:07
Excavators extracting coal at Kolubara, Serbia’s largest mine, near the village of Vreoci, 60 km south of Belgrade, on October 27, 2023. ANDREJ ISAKOVIC / AFP
Efforts which will, perhaps, make it possible to bend the curve before 2030. But very insufficient efforts to limit global warming “below 2°C” and if possible at 1.5°C, the thresholds recommended by the Paris agreement sealed at COP21 in 2015. Tuesday, November 14, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) made public its report on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), that is to say the commitments made by States to fight against climate change. In the best case scenario, that is to say if all these policies are actually applied, the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would be 2% lower in 2030 than in 2019. Far from the The objective recommended by scientists, i.e. – 43%.
This document constitutes a new alarm signal just over two weeks before the opening of the 28th Conference of the Parties on Climate (COP28), which will be held in the United Arab Emirates from November 30 to December 12. “Today’s report shows that governments are taking small steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why they need to take bold steps at COP28 in Dubai, to be on the right trackcommented Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the CCNUCC. Every minute counts, just as every fraction of a degree counts if we want to avoid the worst climate impacts and limit global warming to 1.5 °C. »
This work of reviewing the commitments of States is one of the direct consequences of the Paris agreement. The 196 parties who came together on this text also committed to transmitting their CDN and then submitting new ones every five years. A strategy which should allow climate diplomacy to make a regular and global inventory of the reforms implemented throughout the world. Since 2020, the United Nations (UN) has therefore compiled these plans while taking into account updates. Twenty countries have updated them over the past year.
“Imperative for clarity”
In total, United Nations experts dissected the measures of 195 parties to the Paris agreement. A sign that most states are playing the game, “94% provided quantified mitigation targets, expressed as clear numerical objectives” and only “6% included strategies for which there is no quantifiable information”specify the authors. “The grammar of CDNs is being integrated by Statesunderlines Lola Vallejo, climate director of the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations. But when we go into detail, we also realize that there will be a need for clarity in the future to clearly specify what the real ambitions of the States are behind the commitments. There is sometimes vagueness, for example on the reduction because we do not always know if they are talking about CO2 or all greenhouse gases, but also on the expected share of carbon capture. Precision will be fundamental to achieving real carbon neutrality in 2050.”
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