2023-11-14 12:56:25
Polar research vessel – UCL
MADRID, 14 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) –
The fastest warming in the Arctic will cause a global temperature increase of 2°C to be reached eight years earlier than if the region were warming at the global average rate.
It is the conclusion of a new modeling study led by researchers from UCL (University College London).
Currently, the Arctic is warming almost four times faster than the world average pace. Published in the magazine Earth System Dynamicsthe new research aimed to estimate the impact of this faster warming on how quickly the 1.5°C and 2°C global temperature thresholds set in the Paris Agreement are likely to be exceeded.
To do this, the research team created alternative climate change projections in which rapid warming of the Arctic was not occurring. They then compared the temperatures in this hypothetical world with those in the “real world” models and examined the timing of the Paris Agreement’s critical thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C. They found that in models without rapid Arctic warming, the thresholds were exceeded five and eight years later, respectively. than the projected “real world” dates of 2031 and 2051.
Additionally, they found that the disproportionately rapid warming of the Arctic, known as Arctic amplification, added disproportionate uncertainty to forecasts, as the variation in model projections for the region is greater than for the rest of the planet.
Alistair Duffey, PhD candidate and lead author of the study, said it’s a statement: “Our study highlights the global importance of rapid Arctic warming by quantifying its major impact on when we are likely to exceed critical climate thresholds. “Arctic warming also adds substantial uncertainty to climate forecasts.”
“These findings underscore the need for broader monitoring of temperatures in the region, both in situ and via satellite, and for a better understanding of the processes occurring there, which can be used to improve forecasts of global temperature rise. “.
The study does not attempt to quantify the ways in which Arctic warming affects the rest of the world, for example through the retreat of sea ice that helps keep the planet cool. but rather estimates the direct contribution of Arctic warming to global temperature rise.
“In addition, rapid warming in the Arctic has global consequences that we did not take into account in this study, including rising sea levels and thawing permafrost, “which leads to the release of more carbon into the air.”
The amplification of the Arctic, which is more intense in the winter months, is due to several factors. One is the retreat of sea ice, which means the water absorbs more sunlight (and heat) instead of being reflected back into space. Another factor is less vertical mixing of air at the poles than in the tropics, which keeps the air warmer near the Earth’s surface.
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