2023-11-24 04:05:42
It comforts you when you wake up early, gets circulation going and creates a smooth transition from night to day. For many people, starting the day without coffee is almost unthinkable. In the future, however, this stimulant could cost a little more.
“They don’t like heat, drought, or humidity. They need very specific shading conditions and nutrient-rich soil,” explains von Sophie von Loeben from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Change Research (PiK). on the sensitivity of coffee plants. Conditions that until now have occurred mainly in countries located around the equator, the so-called coffee belt. But the consequences of climate change are altering this model.
Crop areas in danger
In many tropical countries, the climate is no longer as stable as it once was, says Friedel Hütz-Adams of the Südwind Institute. “Now it suddenly rains a lot, there are months without rain and periods of heat. The coffee plants can’t handle it,” says Hütz-Adams.
A study by the Australian research organization CSIRO has shown that, in recent decades, unfavorable weather conditions have increasingly reduced harvests. There are also studies that predict that the area currently suitable for coffee cultivation would decrease by more than 50 percent between now and 2050. This will affect many coffee growers, especially in Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest producers in the world.
New places due to climate change?
As studies also show, areas that were previously too cold for coffee cultivation could be suitable in the future, however, there is also another problem here, since many of these areas are forested, something that would be counterproductive. “If I cut them down to grow coffee, I worsen climate change because I release more CO2,” says Hütz-Adams.
In addition, products grown in deforested areas after 2020 will not be able to be imported into the EU, as stipulated by community legislation. Europe is, in turn, one of the most important importing regions of this product.
Until now, the world market has been dominated by two types of coffee: Arabica and Robusta. However, about 130 wild varieties of coffee are known in nature, some of which are more resistant to heat or certain pests.
However, simply planting other coffee varieties is not a quick and easy solution. First, because developing new varieties takes time, and because you have to wait three years before you can harvest a coffee tree for the first time. And second, because coffee farmers, who often already live on the edge of poverty, cannot afford to be without income for three years.
According to estimates, this global market moves about $200 billion a year, while people who grow coffee receive less than 10 percent of that amount.
Change the market?
Awareness about the effects of climate change is present, says Hütz-Adams. However, applied on a large scale, it fails, because coffee growers do not have the necessary resources to finance measures to protect the climate.
According to Hütz-Adams, it is unreasonable for coffee farmers to invest today, and possibly have to borrow money without knowing what price they will get for their coffee in the future. Therefore, other market structures would have to be established, long-term contracts formalized and support measures and guaranteed purchase prices introduced to encourage coffee growers to adapt their production to climate change.
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