On the eastern border of Ukraine, Russia has stationed about 100,000 troops. Russia has also stockpiled weapons, including modern artillery.
The United States has said Russia has not yet commented on the deployment of troops. The United States has said it will retaliate if Russia invades Ukraine.
Some Western intelligence agencies have suggested that Russia may invade Ukraine in 2022.
Russia has also accused NATO and the United States of stockpiling weapons in Ukraine, increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia has said it has no plans to invade Ukraine.
What is the problem?
Until the 1990s, Ukraine was a member state of the Soviet Union. Since then, when the Soviet Union collapsed, it has gained independence and is operating as a separate nation with a new constitution for itself.
Ukraine still shares its borders with Russia and the European Union. But Ukraine has many cultural and social ties with Russia. Significant numbers of Russian-speakers still live in Ukraine.
In 2014, pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted. In retaliation, Russia seized the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine. Russia has also backed separatists who control significant areas of eastern Ukraine. This is what gave rise to the Russo-Ukrainian war.
More than 14,000 people have been killed so far in the war between separatist militants and the Ukrainian military. The war is still going on.
Minsk Agreement
In 2015, an agreement was signed between the then President of Ukraine Pedro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin of Russia. That is what is called the Minsk Agreement. The purpose of the agreement is to resolve the dispute between the separatist forces in eastern Ukraine with the support of Ukraine and Russia.
Since then, more than 20 attempts have been made to bring about a ceasefire, but all efforts have been in vain. Soldiers on both sides of the border continue to be killed.
Election problem
Russia and Ukraine both have their own views on eastern Ukraine. It’s inconsistent, says Duncan Allen, a Centennial House Associate Fellow.
Duncan Allen believes that Ukraine wants to reunite its territories and reassert its sovereignty, but that Russia is forcing authorities in the city of Kyiv to gain special status or autonomy for eastern Ukraine.
Russia has accused Ukraine of failing to hold local elections and of failing to grant special status to eastern Ukraine.
But the Ukrainian government says it has granted special status to eastern Ukraine.
According to the Minsk agreement, Ukraine must hold domestic elections before it can fully acquire its territory from Russia.
Ukraine insists that if elections are to be held in eastern Ukraine, the region must first come under their control. If not, the Ukrainian side says the election will take place under Russian pressure.
Russia has strongly warned that Ukraine could be allowed to occupy parts of eastern Ukraine without holding local elections.
Russia has also put forward a new argument that Ukraine should not join the NATO system to control its sovereignty. Russia has also argued that NATO must make a formal commitment to stop advancing eastward.
It is worth recalling that Russian President Vladimir Putin recently warned of a military retaliation if the West continued to act aggressively.
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