2023-12-02 12:00:31
It is on its way but is slow in appearing. The €100 electric car, Emmanuel Macron’s campaign promise, should become a reality in 2024. Announced for November, the opening of orders has been postponed by a few weeks, “the time for final arbitrations at Matignon”, slips a government source.
At the end of October, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, specified the broad outlines of the system, intended for “Lowest 50% of households”. The monthly rent of €100 will not include insurance – which depends on the driver’s profile and annual mileage. And “leasing” (long-term rental) may or may not include a buyout offer.
There is therefore no question of targeting certain socio-professional categories, such as nurses, nor of reserving the system for populations likely to no longer be able to access the low-emission zones which are being deployed in metropolises with their current vehicle, which is too polluting.
“A few tens of thousands of vehicles”
“The simple system will develop by example, as people see their neighbor or cousin using it, approves Thierry Pech, general director of the Terra Nova ideas laboratory. Once launched, the eligibility criteria could be tightened – as for renovation aid – in order to only benefit the most popular categories. suggests this intellectual, who in 2022, with others, convinced the candidate president Macron to integrate such a program into his program « leasing social ».
In any case, we must expect a modest start, involving “a few tens of thousands” of vehicles, as indicated in September by the Head of State.
Stellantis and Renault promise models for less than €20,000
Among the models offered, we will probably find the e-C3 presented in October by Citroën, with a list price of €23,300 then, from 2025, a version with reduced autonomy, marketed at €19,990. Stellantis, the group to which the chevron brand belongs, should also see its electric Fiat 500 participate in the system.
Renault, for its part, had cleared the market for small electric vehicles with its Zoe and especially the Dacia Spring, produced in China and sold below the psychological threshold of €20,000. Its success cannot be denied, with more than 24,000 units sold from January to October, compared to 18,000 for the whole of 2022.
Not sure that the Renault 5, expected for 2024, gives rise to a rental at €100 per month. But the diamond manufacturer also intends to strengthen its efforts on entry-level electric vehicles. To everyone’s surprise, he has just unveiled the Legend concept car, foreshadowing a small city car which should arrive in 2025 for less than €20,000.
Chinese competitors in ambush
After having largely focused on mid- and high-end models, offering comfortable margins, but heavier, and therefore not very ecological, the French automobile giants are beginning a rebalancing. A necessity if they want to avoid being overtaken by Chinese competitors, capable of offering cars at €10,000 at home and who sooner or later will open factories in Europe to flood the continent.
This shift should broaden access to new electric cars, “whose average price is today €13,500 higher than that of a thermal equivalent”observes Marc Mortureux, general delegate of the Automotive Platform, voice of the sector.
A price which should nevertheless remain problematic. “The snake is biting its tail: to lower prices, you need volume. To sell more, you have to lower prices,” he notes.
Discounted vehicles?
“If they want to produce in France or in Europe, manufacturers can hardly play on labor costs or drastically reduce the price of the battery – around 40% of the value of the car – which they do not produce themselves. -themselves. As a result, they are forced to act on the content of the vehicles themselves, for example by offering fewer options. continues Marc Mortureux.
Some see it as a step towards greater sobriety. Others are more severe, like Flavien Neuvy, director of the Cetelem Automobile Observatory: “The electric car is more expensive, more complicated to recharge, has less autonomy, less efficient. »
A potentially advantageous cost per use
In any case, assessing the true cost of an electric vehicle requires taking into account its use. “An electric car can quickly become profitable for someone who drives 80 kilometers per day and recharges their vehicle at home, during off-peak hours. Two to three euros are then enough to drive 100 kilometers,” observes Marc Mortureux.
But maintenance may be less expensive, due to the greater simplicity of the engine and the lower presence of fluids (no oil change required, for example), the return on investment is less obvious for a small driver or for a driver who must regularly recharge his car on the motorway, at fast terminals whose prices per kilometer are close to those for fuel. In this case, the various aids (ecological bonus, conversion bonus, regional aid, etc.), granted with or without resource conditions, are not enough to close the gap with thermal energy.
Rent rather than buy your electric car
In many cases, going electric requires a dose of voluntarism, dictated by the climate emergency. Those who take the plunge massively resort to leasing, a practice which today concerns more than one in two cars, all engines combined, and which has shifted the focus from ownership to use of the vehicle.
“Long-term rental allows you to cover your monthly expenses, up to a few hundred euros, explains Marie Laloy, marketing and services director at Aramis, leader in online car sales. It also makes it easy to change models after two or three years. An advantage, while the transition to electric presents many unknowns, including rapid progress in battery autonomy. »
While waiting for an electric breakthrough on the second-hand market
The democratization of electric cars will also and above all depend on the growth of the second-hand market, which today represents four-fifths of sales. A market directly dependent on the new market.
Certainly, the share of electric (excluding hybrids) in new registrations has increased by 10% in one year and now represents 15% of new car sales, barely less than diesel. But, notes Marie Laloy, “with 26,000 transactions over the first ten months of the year, electric constitutes barely more than 1% of second-hand sales”.
The development of second-hand electric vehicles also depends on the behavior of public authorities, businesses and rental companies, whose new vehicles end up in the hands of individuals after a few years. However, according to a study published in March by the NGO Transport and Environment, companies and administrations are behind the greening objectives of their fleets set by law.
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Europeans and the electric car
Just over a quarter of Europeans (27%) are ready to change engines to access the low-emission zones decreed in certain large cities.
Only one in two people is aware of the European regulations prohibiting the sale of new thermal vehicles from 2035. Seven out of ten respondents believe that this timetable is too short.
A large bloc of European countries – apart from Spain, Portugal and Italy – disapproves of this calendar, France in the lead. The regulations are considered unfair. It is in France and Belgium that this injustice is most strongly felt.
The main obstacle to purchasing an electric vehicle is its price: 51% of respondents in Europe cite this argument. The other main reasons are the fear of encountering charging difficulties (35%) and insufficient autonomy (33%).
(Source: Cetelem Automobile Observatory, November 2023)
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