The shadow of the economic crisis on the elections in Egypt

2023-12-09 04:00:00

Time.news – Sunday crucial election day in Egypt to renew the presidential office in the middle of a unprecedented economic crisis and in a climate of regional insecurity for the Israeli-Hamas warwhich however do not affect the popularity of the outgoing head of state, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a great favorite to be reappointed for a third term. In all, around 67 million Egyptians aged over 18 have the right to vote both at home and abroad – where the polls have been open since 1 December – while in Egypt the operations will last three days, from 10 to 12 December, in 10,085 polling stations.

Final results are expected on December 18th. In addition to al-Sisi, three other candidates are in the running, but they do not enjoy great popular support: Farid Zahranleader of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party (PSE), Abdel-Sanad Yamamaleader of the Wafd Party and Hazem Omar, head of the Republican People’s Party. The leader of the liberal opposition, Hisham Kassem, is out of action following his sentencing to six months in prison last October. Same fate for the former parliamentarian Ahmed al-Tantawi, who for months concentrated all the hopes of the opposition, only to renounce his candidacy on October 13th. His electoral campaign director had declared that he had obtained only 14 thousand citizen signatures out of the 25 thousand necessary to be able to vote, but in reality several of al-Tantawi’s supporters reported having been attacked, threatened or prevented from registering their candidacy by officials close to power. The outgoing president al-Sisi instead enjoys 424 signatures of deputies, out of 596 seats, and 1.135 million signatures of citizens.

The economy is the main theme of the electoral campaign and government challenge of the next presidential term: two thirds of the 105 million Egyptians live below or just above the poverty line. Inflation is at 40% and the Egyptian pound has been devalued by almost 50% to meet the International Monetary Fund’s criteria. As a result, the prices of all goods – almost all imported into Egypt – have soared while the recent increases and bonuses announced by the president for public employees and pensioners have had little effect.

A country on the brink of the abyss

In addition to the serious economic and social problems that are bringing the country to the brink, the other black hole concerns the widespread violations of human rights and trampled freedoms. General laws still limit the freedoms of Egyptians and tens of thousands of people are imprisoned for political reasons.
Al-Sisi, a former marshal and defense minister of Islamist Mohamed Morsi, came to power in 2013, when the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted from power in a coup. Despite the bad economic report card, he is preparing to be reconfirmed, with a result in line with the two previous presidential elections – 2014 and 2018 – won with over 96% of the votes. His chances of being re-elected are also the consequence of the weakness of his rivals and his work as a mediator in the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

For Farid Zahran, the fact that other candidates were able to run for president is to be considered “a miracle”, taking into account the repression against the opposition that has been underway for a decade and the limited political opening in Egypt. Zahran, 66, is a leading figure in the student movements of the 1970s who has half a century of political experience behind him.

In mid-2022, faced with harsh criticism aimed at the Egyptian government, al-Sisi launched the so-called “National Dialogue” to unite all the country’s political forces, including the opposition, with the aim of finding solutions to the socio-economic situation. -economic and provide opening signals. “We are trying to win the battle for change and democratic transition on the basis of a points system, not with the lethal blow or the technical knockout,” Zahran said a few days before the presidential elections, warning that an abrupt change would bring the Egypt to “a collapse with fatal consequences that it could not bear”. At the center of his electoral program is amnesty for all prisoners of conscience and the start of “a long path” for “a democratic transition”.