China’s leader, Xi Jinping, arrived in Vietnam on Tuesday for a relatively rare trip abroad, seeking to elevate ties with an important neighbor just three months after President Biden visited Hanoi on a similar mission.
The visit comes amid heightened tensions between the United States and China, with Vietnam finding itself in a high-risk, high-reward position as it balances its relationship with both global powers. “This is a very delicate dance for Vietnam’s government,” said Alexander Vuving, a professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. “They have to dance on a very thin tightrope, and the tightrope has become even thinner.”
Analysts believe that Xi Jinping’s visit to Vietnam is aimed at testing its intentions and seeking assurances that it is not siding against China with the United States, especially after Washington and Hanoi agreed in September to form a “comprehensive strategic partnership.”
One point of contention is Vietnam’s reluctance to join what China calls a “community of common destiny,” as it fears that it could be interpreted as acceptance of Chinese hegemony. Xi Jinping introduced this concept about a decade ago as part of a plan to line up regional support and tamp down distrust among Southeast Asian nations that were once China’s tributary states.
In addition to diplomatic discussions, the visit is expected to include talks about territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The agenda also encompasses potential collaboration on a cargo rail project near the Chinese border and the exploration of rare earth minerals, a topic of great interest for both Washington and Beijing.
Vietnam has the world’s second-largest rare-earth deposits, and the United States sees it as a potential partner for an alternative supply chain that could displace China’s monopoly. After President Biden’s visit, the White House announced that the United States would help Vietnam quantify its rare-earth deposits and work on technical cooperation with the country.
For Xi Jinping, anything that might complicate or delay U.S. plans for rare earths or microchips could be considered a victory for China. “Xi’s visit is to say that Vietnam has not escaped China’s orbit just yet,” said Huong Le Thu, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Asia program.
Vietnam’s leaders are aiming for a delicate balance, welcoming China’s leader to remind the United States that they are not beholden to American entreaties, but also understanding the risks of bending too far towards Beijing’s wishes. With anti-China protests breaking out across Vietnam in the past, the Vietnamese leadership is playing a delicate game, navigating the challenges and opportunities coming from the competing great powers.