“Immigration” bill: lessons from a crash

by time news

2023-12-12 11:30:07

Nine months after the forceps adoption of the pension reform, the government rediscovered how fragile it was. The blow inflicted on him by the opposition on Monday, December 11, in the National Assembly, by uniting against the immigration bill that they refused to discuss, is a hard blow. It marks the failure of the Minister of the Interior but not only that.

Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Immigration law: story of a day of debacle for the government

Coming from the ranks of the Les Républicains (LR) party, a fine connoisseur of parliamentary mysteries, Gérald Darmanin set himself the challenge of having the text adopted by first conceding a lot to the senatorial right, before attempting a rebalancing in the Assembly national so as not to lose its left wing.

All the negotiations initiated in recent weeks have been shattered when the far right, followed by almost all of the LR deputies, decided to vote on the rejection motion defended by environmentalists and supported by the entire Nupes. In a vote that came down to just five votes, everything collapsed: the illusion that the government, by listening and talking, would manage to make ends meet, a repressive aspect on expulsions and a outstretched hand for immigrant workers; the ability of the President of the Republic to inscribe in the long term the “at the same time” which has served as his doctrine since 2017; the political hopes of a minister who intended to use the adoption of the bill as a launching pad for the 2027 presidential election.

After admitting that he had lost the game, Gérald Darmanin was nevertheless reinforced in his position by the Head of State, who asked the Prime Minister to quickly provide him with proposals likely to lift the blockages .

No reliable ally

The bill is not buried, but the government has less and less control, surrounded by a coalition of opposites more inclined to tear down the foundations of macronism than to defend coherence. On a subject as divisive as immigration, hearing all the Nupes groups praise their spirit of openness and their concern for humanity before admitting without batting an eyelid that the RN and the right are voting on the same motion on a closed position and rejection is deeply disturbing.

If there is a final text, “he risks being hardened by the right”, conceded the communist Fabien Roussel, who, more lucid than his partners, speaks of “ relative victory.

Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Bill relating to immigration: Gérald Darmanin drags the majority into the crisis

Growing polarization plays into the hands of Marine Le Pen. On immigration, she has the LR deputies at her mercy and in turn succeeds in putting the government in difficulty. Over the months, Eric Ciotti, the president of LR, has aligned himself so much with the theses of the RN that it becomes more and more difficult to distinguish the two projects. The drift is not only deadly for the Republican right. It is problematic for Emmanuel Macron, who has no reliable ally to consolidate his end of mandate.

In the state of weakness in which he finds himself, the President of the Republic is not entirely helpless. He can try to engage in the battle of opinion and rely on the expectations of the French to criticize political games. Unlike the pension bill, the immigration text would benefit from strong support, according to the polls. This is the only asset left in his hands.

The world

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