2023-12-15 01:05:17
Nothing is stopping the rise in uranium prices, still driven upwards by growing demand: uranium needs could double or even triple by 2040.
For the first time since 2008, uranium exceeded 83 dollars per pound this week compared to 50 in January – spot price -, for immediate sale. A surge in prices that began a year and a half ago and which should continue, according to analysts at Sprott Asset Management, who see the threshold of 100 dollars exceeded within a year and a half.
On the very specific uranium market, the equation is hardly changing: with 62 nuclear reactors under construction – including 26 in China -, 111 projects under study and several power plants whose lifespan has been extended, the Needs will explode in the coming years, doubling or even tripling by 2040, according to the different scenarios of the World Nuclear Association. While many doubts hover over the capacity of the sector to be able to respond to this growth on time.
Concern about medium-term supply
There is no shortage of natural uranium reserves: identified global resources amount to nearly 6 million tonnes, the equivalent of a century of consumption at the current rate, explains an expert in the sector. But medium-term supply could pose a problem: production from existing mines is expected to fall by half from 2030, adds our interlocutor, in particular because of the exhaustion of the reserves of four mines which represent a quarter of the global production -Cigar Lake in Canada, Four Mile in the United States, Budenovskoye 2 and Central Mynkuduk in Kazakhstan. And the decline of these deposits cannot be compensated by the mining projects already launched.
Beyond the availability of natural uranium, that of transformed uranium could also become problematic. Several countries have shown their desire to free themselves from the factories of the Russian Rosatom, a major supplier in the sector. The stocks of industrialists and governments as well as current enrichment capacities are an immediate asset, but will not be sufficient without adaptation by the States concerned. In the prevailing uncertain geopolitical context, the market is becoming increasingly tight, hence the almost continuous surge in prices over the past year and a half.
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