2023-12-15 09:40:40
Temperature rise of 1.2 to 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century and by 2 to 5 degrees Celsius after 2060, compared to 1971-2000, increase in hot days by 10 to 15 days by 2050 and by 30- 50 days until 2100, if measures are not taken to limit carbon dioxide emissions, risk of desertification of approximately 40% of Greece, especially in the eastern and southern parts, are some of the gloomy predictions resulting from the update of the report “The environmental, economic and social effects of climate change in Greece”, presented today at the Bank of Greece.
In economic terms, according to the governor of the Bank of Greece, Giannis Stournaras, the cost of climate change for Greece by the end of the century is estimated at 2.2 billion euros per year, or about 1% of GDP, in today’s values. Forests that burn, crops that are destroyed, tourism that will decrease as the temperature rises are reflected in these costs.
The 2050s include the tipping point beyond which anthropogenic climate change will become irreversible, the report notes. Among other things, precipitation is expected to decrease significantly after 2050, especially in the southernmost parts of the country. At the same time, however, the frequency of extreme heavy rainfall will increase. Also, fires will become more frequent: 10 to 20 days more our forests will burn by the middle of the century and 15-50 days by the end of the century. At the same time, the sea level will also rise: by 15-20 cm by the middle of the century and by 20-80 cm by the end of it.
The study illuminates the most “vulnerable” regions to climate change, with the aim of designing an effective national adaptation policy to it. Vulnerability is assessed based on physical, but also socio-economic characteristics.
The conclusions of the study on the effects on agriculture, especially in Thessaly, sound the alarm.
• With regard to forest fires, the relatively highest vulnerabilities, by area, inhabitant, total and per capita GDP occur in Central Greece, Western Greece and the Peloponnese, while Eastern Macedonia and Thrace shows high vulnerabilities based on uneven distribution of GDP per capita. Attica shows the highest vulnerability based on area and population density.
• As far as transport is concerned, Eastern Greece shows the negative primaries of vulnerability, followed by Western and then Central Greece.
The conclusions of the study on the effects on agriculture sound the alarm, especially considering the case of Thessaly. Among other things, a decrease in maize production up to 41.7% and cotton up to 34.2% and an increase in wheat production by 13.4% in the worst case scenario by the end of the century are predicted. Especially in shallow and sloping lands cotton and maize yields are annihilated in the worst case scenario. That is why the study proposes a series of measures, such as limiting the cultivation of cotton and maize in the lowlands.
The Bank of Greece is strongly active in the issue of climate change, through the Climate Change Impact Study Committee, while participating in the eight-year Life-IP AdaptinGR project (2019-2026), the most important for the country’s adaptation to climate change. In 2021 he founded the Center for Climate Change and Sustainability.
Source kathimerini.gr
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