2023-12-22 16:38:13
Time.news – The bombings on Gaza, the growing violence in the West Bank, the closure of prayer areas in Jerusalem are shaking the fragile balance between Israel and Islamic countries and risk creating a wave of uncontrolled violence across the Middle East. The ongoing Israeli military operations and the increasingly serious humanitarian crisis affecting civilians are contributing to bringing tension to the maximum and undermining the caution shown until now by various actors whose reaction could have been feared.
Among these Iran, the hezbollah Lebanese, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who have currently protested and accused Israel, but have taken a wait-and-see attitude. At a diplomatic level, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s new break with Turkey should be noted. The latter continues to demand that the Israeli government answer to the International Criminal Court for the crimes committed and has no intention of calming the Turkish diplomatic offensive.
Another consequence was the freezing of ‘Abraham Accords‘, which aim to obtain recognition of the Jewish State by countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and, above all, Saudi Arabia. A historic step that ended up on a dead end due to the ongoing conflict. The ever-increasing tension undermines the current fragile balance, which could collapse at any moment.
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Border between Lebanon and Israel
The rocket fire between southern Lebanon and Israel continues, American bases in Iraq and Syria have repeatedly come under attack, the Yemeni Houthis threaten the security of Israel and the Red Sea, millions of civilians in Gaza are pressing on the borders with Egypt and Jordan are all factors that are keeping the current balance hanging by a thread. Iran Iran was the first country to end up in the dock following the attacks launched by Hamas on Israel on 7 October.
Despite the celebrations staged in some cities of the country, the regime of the ayatollahs he was quick to deny any involvement. A circumstance also confirmed by the leaders of Hamas, who have always found a safe haven in Tehran. However, it is undeniable that Iranian involvement has gradually disappeared from the aggressive rhetoric of Israeli politics; at the same time the Islamic Republic limited itself to a few threats and various proclamations, effectively removing itself from the political context.
The truce, the exchange of hostages, the possibility of negotiations, do not pass through Tehran. The effects of Iran’s allies in the region have also been limited. Only the Yemeni Houthis, Shiites and close to the Islamic Republic, are stirring the waters of the Red Sea. On the contrary militias Shia in Syria they were annihilated by American missiles and the Lebanese Hezbollah did not go beyond a few cross-fires of rockets with the military posts deployed on the border.
The ayatollahs’ regime is fresh from the wave of anti-hijab protests following the death of the young Mahsa Amini and is having to deal with a serious economic crisis. Far from having an active role, the Iranian government is watching with interest Israel’s fall in popularity among international public opinion.
In Lebanon any escalation is not in the hands of the fragile Beirut government, but of Tehran’s Shiite allies. A threat that Israel is not willing to underestimate: around 80 thousand civilians have been evacuated from northern Israel, but above all 200 thousand soldiers have been deployed by the Jewish state at a border where tension has not been so high since 2006.
At the moment around 150 people have lost their lives in mutual rocket attacks, mostly Hezbollah men, but also civilians and some journalists. Hezbollah, under pressure from Turkey and other regional actors, has taken a wait-and-see position, moderating disruptive actions and counterattacks against Israel.
Shiite leader Hassan Nasrallah has put Israel under pressure and forced the Jewish state’s army to divide its forces. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly threatened to strike and “destroy Lebanon” if Hezbollah were to declare war on Israel. An unlikely scenario at the moment, but the situation has all the elements to constitute a new war front in the future, when the operations against Hamas come to an end.
Yemen and tension in the Red Sea The Yemeni Houthis burst onto the scene somewhat surprisingly, whose rockets and drones made tension in the Red Sea skyrocket. The Huthi they said attacks on shipping entering and exiting the Red Sea “will continue,” even as the United States has formed a 20-country naval task force whose mission is to counter the militants and restore security to the area.
The Huthi dello Yemen, a Shiite movement that controls part of the country with the support of Iran, from which it inherited military technologies, have multiplied rocket launches and incursions in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. An obligatory passage between Asia and Africa which at its narrowest point measures just 32 kilometres, an important route in the energy market and for trade in the area, through which approximately 33 thousand ships pass each year.
The Houthis’ strategy has also put the Israeli city of Eilat and the settlements located on the coasts of the Red Sea at serious risk. In recent days, Israeli and US defense systems have activated a high alert protocol and thwarted the threat of rockets and drones. It remains to be seen what will happen with the entry into the scene of the naval task force wanted by the USA, an initiative which has not found the support of the Islamic world and has triggered threats from Tehran, which has announced that it has a contingent of 55 thousand sailors ready to intervene. Egypt and Jordan they fear most of all that the ongoing humanitarian crisis will translate into a wave of migration.
The two countries have concluded agreements and collaborated with Israel in the past, however the violence of the intervention in Gaza suggests that the Jewish state is aiming for ethnic cleansing of the Strip, pushing civilians across the border. A circumstance that has increased tension, both Egypt and Jordan have repeatedly warned of the risk of the ongoing conflict getting out of control and will not accept Palestinian civilians being massed on their borders by bombing.
Turkey
When Hamas attacked Israel last October 7, relations between Ankara and the Jewish state had just returned to normal after 10 years of frost which was followed by a normalization process that lasted two years. A circumstance that initially pushed Erdogan to be cautious in the first weeks of the conflict.
After the bombing of the Al Ahly hospital in Gaza, the Turkish president changed his tune and began to accuse Israel of genocide. Erdogan declared that he did not want to break relations with the Jewish State and directed his invectives at the government and Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, it should be remembered that the respective ambassadors, appointed a year earlier after years of vacancy, were temporarily recalled to their homeland and that the energy development plans that the two countries are interested in implementing have been frozen.
Erdogan, who hosts the exiled leaders of Hamas in Turkey, insists on a political solution that leads to the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. A result to be achieved through a system based on the role of guarantor third countries. At the same time, the Turkish president, accused at home by the opposition and public opinion of not obtaining results, has managed to evacuate more than 200 patients from Gaza to Turkey, continues to send aid, accuses Israel of genocide and insists that Netanyahu be tried for war crimes.
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