The Valencian left, in search of the successors of Ximo Puig and Mónica Oltra

2023-12-26 21:17:55

Valencia Twenty years in a row of Popular Party governments. This is the number that has tormented many leaders of the Valencian left since May 28, fearful that the return of the PP to the Palau de la Generalitat Valenciana, now accompanied by Vox, will establish a conservative reign like the one started by Eduardo Zaplana in year 1995 and that only the economic crisis and corruption liquidated in 2015.

To overthrow the popular and their ultra partners, the PSPV and Compromís will have to cut a lot of stone. They will need a firm and ingenious opposition task that erodes the Council, a goal they have not achieved in the first six months of Carlos Mazón’s mandate. They will also require new leaders who make them forget two references such as Ximo Puig and Mónica Oltra. The task does not seem easy.

After a semester of long and heavy digestion of defeat, those who have already started the organic renewal are the socialists. They have done it at the hands of the one who commands everything in the PSOE, Pedro Sánchez, who has promoted the move to Puig’s side and, at the same time, has postulated the Minister of Science, Innovation and Universities, Diana Morant, as his successor in the general secretary of the PSPV. The ex-mayor of Gandia has the support of the ex-head of the Council, who in a usual exercise of realism, has given up on his preferred heir, the ex-counselor of Finance Arcadi España. Puig knows that a battle against the Spanish president is always difficult to win. In addition, Morant, who represents a certain continuity in the commitment to a Valencian socialism, is a candidate that the Morellan politician and his acolytes can support.

The other two candidates, the provincial presidents of Valencia and Alicante, Carlos Fernández Bielsa and Alejandro Soler, are not so much to Puig’s taste, two politicians much more Jacobin than the Safor leader. The first is mayor of Mislata and the second was mayor of Elche. Their organic positions would have allowed Bielsa and Soler to weave alliances until they have 60% of the supports in their provinces or, at least, this is what they tell the media from their surroundings.

Although Morant appears to be the favorite thanks to Sánchez’s sponsorship, the race will not have a winner until closer to the celebration of the congress, scheduled for the last weekend of February or the first of March. At this point, they are all hypotheses, and to understand the fragility of any prognosis for the PSPV, it is necessary to remember that a semi-unknown like the mayor of Burjassot, Rafa García, obtained 42% of the votes in the fight for general secretary against Ximo Puig two years after he regained the Generalitat for the Socialists.

Tighten the PSOE, but do not break the rope

In the case of Compromís, the first duty is to find a formula that lowers the tensions between the three formations that make up the coalition, which at the moment is only electoral. Although Més, the majority party, wants a merger, the refusal of Iniciativa del Poble Valencià will imply the bet for a federation. It’s an option that doesn’t excite Mes, but that they accept as the only possible one.

In terms of leadership, there is no short-term replacement planned. At least, until Més holds its national congress next October. From then on, and with the 2027 elections on the horizon, two possible leaders of the list can be seen, the deputy in Congress, Àgueda Micó, and the deputy in the Courts, Vicent Marzà, since the intention of Joan Baldoví is not to repeat as a candidate.

Another unknown that affects the future of Compromís is whether Sumar will give up creating a structure in all the territories of the State. If the party of Yolanda Díaz lands in the Valencian Country, the collaboration between both formations will be in danger.

Finally, and in terms of political strategy, the coalition plans to mark distances with the Spanish government, as has been evidenced in the controversy over the expansion of the port of Valencia, but without breaking the rope. Compromise will not endanger the progressive majority in Congress. His strategy is classic: “negotiate until you get as much as possible”.