2023-12-23 22:18:53
Russian Navy in trouble with F16s
According to the specialist site Bulgarianmilitary, Ukraine’s use of the F-16 has created significant difficulties for the Russian Navy, according to Frederik Mertens of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague, as reported by Newsweek. This led Russia to redeploy part of its fleet to Novorossiysk, Crimea. The Russian Navy, feeling threatened, planned to develop a naval base in Ochamchira, Abkhazia, an occupied Georgian territory, to counter further Ukrainian attacks.
Mertens highlighted the strategic importance of Ochamchira, describing it as the furthest location available to Russia on the Black Sea. He stressed that the withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet reflects the effectiveness of Ukraine’s military action and the threat posed since the introduction of the F-16 fighters.
Mertens emphasized that F-16s, especially equipped with Harpoon anti-ship missiles, pose a greater challenge to Russia than previous Ukrainian armaments, making the Black Sea a potentially Ukrainian-dominated area.
In October, open source intelligence found that most Russian ships armed with Kalibr cruise missiles were moved to Novorossiysk, leaving only a few ships in occupied Crimea. This follows Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, leading to the transfer of Russian ships to Feodosia and Novorossiysk.
Satellite images showed that the main surface ships of the Russian fleet, including two frigates and three “Varshavyanka” submarines, were transferred to Novorossiysk. This implies that Russia has moved its most important naval vessels, with cruise missile launch capabilities, to the Krasnodar region, from where they can attack Ukraine. Other relevant ships moved include a guard ship, a patrol ship and three large amphibious ships.
Unserviceable F16s with dirty runways
The general consensus is that runways in Ukraine are not adequate for landing and taking off sensitive aircraft like the F-16. Kelly Grieco, of the Stimson Center in Washington, USA, highlighted in a Reuters article that the F-16 requires well-maintained runways to operate effectively. He pointed out that the F-16’s large lower intake could suck in debris on poorly maintained runways, common in Ukraine. In contrast, Soviet aircraft such as the MiG-29 overcame this problem due to the elevated position of the air intakes, avoiding debris on the ground.
A similar view was expressed by Britain’s Royal United Service Institute (RUSI), as reported by Business Insider. These analyzes have gained relevance in the context of the Russian threat to NATO. Initially seen as pro-Russian rhetoric, they are now considered crucial in the analysis of NATO-Russia tensions.
Recently, Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov warned NATO that Russia will take severe measures if NATO airfields are used to transfer fighter planes to Kiev. He distinguished between facilitating air transfers and allowing Ukraine to use NATO air bases, the latter scenario could have “serious consequences.” BulgarianMilitary.com linked this statement to potential problems in operating F-16s from Ukraine.
Polish, Romanian and Slovak media reported that NATO had taken note of Gavrilov’s warning. Currently, Russian forces are not attacking Ukrainian airfields, as they do not play a significant role in the conflict. However, if Ukraine received Western fighter jets, Russia could use long-range air-to-surface missiles to hit the runways, neutralizing the threat.
RUSI’s Justin Bronk observed that the F-16’s undercarriage becomes unstable on dirty runways. He pointed out that American planes, such as the F-16 and F/A-18, require smooth surfaces to operate, unlike Russian Mikoyan and Sukhoi planes, which are designed for more rudimentary runways. This difference between Western and Russian aircraft is significant in the context of the Ukrainian conflict.
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