2023-12-31 01:22:25
He rental price It has every sign of continuing to rise in the new year. The lack of supply pushes up the income of this type of assets. “We believe that rental prices in 2024 will continue to rise with an average increase greater than that of purchase and sale prices due to the difficulty in accessing home ownership for many people, and the application of policies that have discouraged owners from keep their homes in the rental market”, explains Sergio Espadero, Director of Consulting and Valuation of the Group Tecnitasa.
“In a certain way, the lower production of housing intended for rental could be compensated with the creation of more rental units on tertiary land through non-residential housing solutions and with short or medium-term contracts, less than a year,” adds Espadero. Precisely, many landlords are opting for the room rental formula and many others are opting for the tourist rentalas a way to increase the returns on your assets.
Espadero warns that in the year that is about to begin now, “the Spanish real estate sector will be influenced by the government policies that are implemented and their fiscal and legal security effects for investors.” Mainly, it will be the year in which the new housing law approved the last legislature and which contains the possibility of establishing caps on rental prices in certain so-called ‘stressed’ areas.
Regarding the purchase of homes, Espadero considers that in 2024 residential sales prices will be very sensitive to the behavior of interest rates, the cost of credit and the restrictions on its granting.
“If rates continue to increase, a relaxation of prices could be experienced because demand will behave less aggressively and sellers will have to adjust prices to encourage the performance of said demand and, therefore, purchases. At this point, the resistance of homeowners with a mortgage will be critical, which could influence an increase in a type of demand willing to lower prices,” he explains.
Of course, it will probably be a heterogeneous behavior, that is, the large population centers Where there is more solid demand, they will experience less weakness, while in areas where the opposite is true, the drop could be significantly greater. “If this stabilization of interest rates occurs, which partly releases pent-up demand, we could see new moderate increases in line with those experienced in 2023,” he adds.
A new work and second hand
Regarding the type of housing, the housing developments of new construction They have been marketed with almost no developments since they were in the project or off plan, and “with price increases of around 10% due to strong demand, estimated at double the volume of the current supply of new construction.” “As can be expected, in 2024, the price increase would be more pronounced in the population centers with the greatest demand, together with a foreseeably low supply,” he reasons.
As for the second-hand homes, The price has increased in most locations, as have the average purchase and sale prices, although there has been a clear lower volume of transactions. “If the trends continue, it is very possible that the moderate increase in prices will continue, motivated, in part, by the unsatisfied demand for new housing due to its low supply, which has been transferred to used housing,” he concludes.
With respect to mortgage marketTecnitasa’s forecasts show a behavior similar to that of 2023. With a stabilization of the Euribor or a slight decrease, “the granting of mortgage credit will continue to be very restrictive, and these factors do not help a greater granting of mortgages and a greater number of financing operations.” “We do not believe that 2024 will be the year of recovery of the mortgage market in a relevant way,” concludes the head of the appraiser.
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