2024-01-07 11:48:45
At first glance, the news is rather good for Germany in terms of energy transition. CO emissions fell by 9.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, falling to 673 million tonnes of CO, their lowest level in seventy years, according to data from the think tank Agora Energiewende, published Thursday January 4.
Less coal, but more renewables and gas
At the same time, the share of electricity produced from renewables stood at 55% last year, a record, after 48% in 2022, according to figures from the German energy regulator, presented Wednesday January 3. Wind power represented 31% of the German electricity mix, ahead of solar (12%) and biomass (8%).
At the same time, 26% of electricity came from coal, compared to 34% in 2022, while the share of nuclear power in production (6% in 2022) was reduced almost to nothing with the closure in the spring of the three last reactors in the country.
But in detail, the reality is a little less « verte ». The reduced use of coal was partly offset by gas, whose consumption increased by 31%, to reach almost 20% of electricity production. The explanation is above all economic, underlines the regulator. Gas prices fell significantly in 2023, with the development of new sources of supply to compensate for the virtual cessation of Russian deliveries in 2022, while the price of a tonne of coal remains high, around €80. As a result, CO prices have pushed operators to run more of their gas-fired power plants rather than coal-fired ones.
Drop in consumption
The reduction of CO emissions in Germany is not linked solely to the authorities’ efforts to green the economy, say the experts of Agora Energiewende. It is due to the reduced use of coal, but also to the drop in electricity consumption (– 5.4% in 2023), for the second year in a row, due to a drop in demand from industry, which is currently going through a bad patch, with the slowdown in the global economic situation and the rise in energy prices.
At the end of October 2023, the most energy-intensive sectors, such as chemicals and steel, showed a drop in production of 11% over one year. While CO emissions have fallen by a total of 20% in industry, they have stagnated in transport and construction, where reduction targets have not been achieved for the fourth consecutive year.
Increase in imports
Germany has also significantly increased its electricity imports (+ 63%), to make up for its lack of production on days without wind, without sun and at night. Around a quarter of its electricity purchases came from EDF nuclear power plants. Over the whole of 2023, its own exports fell by 25%.
The increase in renewable capacities does not in fact make it possible to compensate for the problem of their intermittency. The production of onshore wind turbines increased by 18% last year, but decreased by 5% for turbines installed at sea. For solar, the subject is even more significant. The photovoltaic park increased by 14.4 GW, but the injection into the network remained at the level of the previous year, due to less sunny weather, underlines the regulator. Please note, however, that these data do not take into account the increase in self-consumption of electricity, with the very strong development of panels on roofs.
Germany is still far from its objectives
“We are on the right path”, nevertheless welcomed Robert Habeck, the green minister of economy and climate. CO emissions were 46% lower than the base year 1990. But Germany is still far from the objective set by the European Union of a reduction of 55% by 2030. It is even further from the ambition displayed by its government, which is counting on a reduction in its emissions of 65% by the end of the decade, with an electricity mix made up of 80% renewables.
The investments required to achieve this are considerable, even though the ruling coalition, led by Olaf Scholz, has just been caught by the Constitutional Court for its budgetary acrobatics.
Gas and oil heating installations increased by 40% last year
“By 2045, around 310 billion euros will need to be invested to extend the electricity transmission network from 37,000 to 71,000 kilometers of land and sea lines,” notes the Agora Energiewende study, recalling that only 127 kilometers of new cables saw the light of day in the first half of 2023. It will also be necessary to build 9,700 kilometers of pipes to create a national hydrogen network by 2030 .
“There remains a significant gap between current measures and the climate objective for 2030,” summarizes the think tank. Last year, around 900,000 gas and oil heating systems were sold in Germany, 40% more than the previous year.
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