2024-01-18 10:36:14
What does the Ibex 35 do?
The Ibex 35 woke up with slight increases but soon turned downward. The Spanish selective already gives up around half a percentage point and puts 9,800 points at risk, with the focus on the ECB minutes.
What values rise or fall the most?
The most bullish:
Aena: 0.9%
Meliá: 0.7%
Ravi: 0.5%
The most bearish:
Grifols: -3%
Solaria: -2%
Log: -1.8%
What do the rest of the stock markets do?
Mixed sign in the European indices while the ECB minutes corresponding to December 14 arrive, a meeting in which they maintained stable rates.
In Asia, the Nikkei fell 0.12%, weighed down by a stronger yen. The Shanghai Stock Exchange gained 0.43% and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange gained 1%. On Wednesday, Wall Street closed with a fall due to a new escalation in the profitability of European and US debt due to the delay in expectations of lower interest rates and the rebound in inflation.
Keys of the day
- Monetary policymakers taking part in the World Economic Forum in Davos have cooled expectations of quick rate cuts in the euro zone. The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, admitted the possibility of reaching a consensus to lower interest rates in the summer, which puts a brake on market expectations that it would happen sooner.
- Today, the Davos Forum will feature the intervention of Nadia Calviño in a colloquium in which she participates as president of the EIB, in what marks her debut as a representative of the organization at a major international event. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the president of the Eurogroup, Paschal Donohoe, also intervene. Also many managers of large companies, such as those responsible for BBVA, Philips, Merck, Barclays, SAP and Swiss Re.
- Appearing outside Davos from the Federal Reserve (Fed): Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman and John C. Williams.
- Analysts consider that given the new rate expectations, the correction in the stock markets could continue, even more so after the strong increases in the final stretch of 2023.
- In Spain, the services sector increased its turnover by 0.5% last November compared to the same month in 2022, a rate almost one point lower than that registered the previous month, according to the INE. For its part, the industry’s turnover fell by 2.2% in November compared to the same month in 2022, expanding by more than two points the drop recorded in October (-0.1%).
- Spain’s trade balance and the eurozone current account are published.
- The Public Treasury will return to the markets this Thursday and hopes to place between 5.5 billion and 6.5 billion euros in a medium and long-term debt auction, with which it will close the issues for the month of January.
- On the geopolitical front, tension is increasing in the Middle East. Now it is Pakistan that bombs the Baloch insurgency in Iran.
What do the analysts say?
From Nomura they assure that the ECB will continue with its “Écouter et répéter” (listen and repeat) strategy. With this, the monetary authority follows the same calendar and roadmap that it has previously indicated. That is, the ECB wants to wait for the January and February wage agreements and wage growth data for the first quarter of 2024, and evaluate how they will affect inflationary pressures before considering easing monetary policy. “In our opinion, it is most likely that we will get more of the same” at the January meeting, says this investment firm, which also does not expect any other monetary policy announcement at the next ECB meeting. In his opinion, the market is “overly aggressive” regarding rate cuts, both in terms of timing and size.
Jacques Aurélien Marcireau, co-head of equities at Edmond de Rothschild AM, points out that 2023 will go down in history as the year of the “magnificent seven”, values that “relegated the rest of the American board.” Since ChatGPT came on the scene, “the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 have lost $2 billion in market capitalization,” he explains. However, that decline has been “more than offset by the Big Tech champions.” For this reason, this analyst is “convinced that going unnoticed can be one of the keys to successfully investing in equities in 2024.” He says that while generative AI is clearly creating productivity gains and opportunities, it is also true that “market expectations seem off scale.” We always “overestimate the short-term impact of technological change and always underestimate its long-term effects. “It can take several years before a prototype goes into production.”
What is the evolution of debt, currencies and raw materials?
A barrel of Brent stands at $78.18.
The euro is exchanged at 1.0893 dollars.
The 10-year Spanish bond is trading with a yield of 3.25%.
Quotes
STOCK EXCHANGE – CURRENCIES – DEBT – INTEREST RATES – RAW MATERIALS
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