2024-01-20 03:56:00
C. Raja Mohan writes: Whether they like it or not, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan will now be drawn deeper into the vortex of the turbulent Middle East. 5 broad trends in security interdependence have emerged.
Read in English: Iran-Pakistan strikes: 5 reasons why India’s stakes deepen in the new Great Game
Two days later, on January 18, 2024, Tehran said it had struck militant bases linked to Israel inside Pakistani territory in Karachi, Pakistan, 2 days after Pakistan’s foreign ministry said it carried out strikes inside Iran targeting separatist militants.
Retaliatory missile strikes between Iran and Pakistan this week, on top of attacks on Indian ships in the Red Sea, highlight the interconnected insecurity of the subcontinent and the Gulf. Although the geopolitics of the two regions have long been intertwined, this is just the beginning of a phase. In this the two regions will be larger than ever in each other’s security calculations.
Whether they like it or not, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan will now be drawn deeper into the vortex of the turbulent Middle East.
5 broad trends in security interdependence have emerged.
First, the plight of the Baloch minority, who stand at odds across Pakistan and Iran and are now the targets of attacks in Tehran and Rawalpindi, draws attention to the fragility of Pakistan’s western frontiers.
Disaffected Baloch groups, with genuine grievances against both governments, have sought refuge along the Pakistan-Iran border, exacerbating security dilemmas for Tehran and Rawalpindi.
Second, beyond bilateralism, dissident groups are caught up in regional power politics between Arabs, Israelis, and Iranians. Ungoverned and under-governed spaces in Baloch lands provide fertile ground for smuggling, drug trafficking and third-party-backed cross-border political militancy.
The deepening conflict between Iran and its Arab neighbors on the one hand, and Israel on the other, fosters cross-border interventions. Pakistan has often accused India of interfering in Baloch affairs.
Third, beyond this region, Balochistan’s geopolitical location – the oil-rich Gulf region – is part of this new competition.
Pakistan’s difficulties in managing long-standing tensions in Balochistan have been complicated by Beijing’s strategy in Gwadar. It is one of the important nodes of the famous China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Arabian Sea is the main Indian Ocean base for Chinese naval presence.
Last September, US Ambassador to Pakistan David Blom visited Gwadar. This has raised speculation about the importance of Balochistan in the deepening rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
Fourth, Afghanistan and Iran have long had problems with each other. Some of them have been sharpened under Taliban rule. These include issues such as religious ideology, minority rights, border management and sharing of transboundary rivers. The Taliban government in Kabul has shown considerable resolve in dealing with Pakistan. It would be surprising if they did not seize the opportunity to enter the gulf to win new friends and expand their influence.
Fifth, the weakening of the Baluch border connecting South Asia and the Gulf, China’s strategic presence in Balochistan and Beijing’s growing role in the Gulf are of deep concern to India. Delhi has traditionally remained neutral in conflicts within the Middle East. But that may be difficult for Delhi to do as India’s economic and security stakes rise in the volatile Middle East.
Attacks on its shipping in the Arabian Sea threaten its commercial lifelines and surprisingly, India has deployed ten warships to protect its interests. India’s clear stance against terrorism, its close ties with Israel and its deep engagement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are new elements of New Delhi’s Middle East policy.
During the colonial period, the undivided subcontinent played an important role in shaping the security and political order in the Gulf. After independence and partition, Pakistan claimed some of that role when it joined Cold War alliances in the region. Today, a weak Pakistan may become part of the expanding conflict arena in the Gulf.
Cross-border attacks between Iran and Pakistan point to the changing context of the region. This will require a rethinking of India’s past assumptions about security in the Middle East.
“Get all Tamil Indian Express news instantly on Telegram app
#reasons #Indias #role #rivalry #countries #increase