2024-01-21 11:58:53
The year starts and a large part of the businessmen repeat the same call from every year to their managers, ordering them to apply this or that salary increase to their templates in the first January payroll. The vast majority of workers will receive a salary increase in 2024 that will range between 3 and 4%although rank-and-file employees will be closer to the high range and managers and middle managers to the lower range.
This is the projection drawn by the consulting firm’s salary outlook report Say it, prepared based on the salaries of some 500 companies and whose conclusions are advanced by EL PERIÓDICO. Their calculations anticipate that salaries will rise above the price level, breaking the inertia of loss of income. purchasing power experienced since the beginning of the inflationary crisis. If 2023 was a transition year in this sense, in which part of the salaries began to rise above the CPI, Ceinsa’s projections reveal that in 2024 the majority of payrolls will beat prices.
Based on the forecasts of Funcas, which in its last panel anticipated an average inflation during 2024 of the 3,2%, all professional categories will see their purchasing power preserved, on average. Although rank-and-file workers will have more room for improvement than managers.
Eight out of every 10 companies have already either decided or quite outlined what the remuneration increase they will apply to their employees in 2024 will be. So Ceinsa expects few differences between their estimates and the data at the end of the year. For basic workers, the forecast is that their payrolls will rise by 3,9%followed by a 3,5% of middle management and a 3,25% of the managers. That is to say, contrary to what was experienced in previous economic cycles, when salaries gained speed from above rather than from below, currently ‘ordinary workers’ are benefiting the most.
The Ceinsa data points in the same direction as other indicators and supports the thesis that wage inequality is currently on the decline. The observatory of CaixaBank Research recently updated its own figures, compiled through the hundreds of thousands of payrolls that the banking entity has domiciled, confirming that 2023 closed with a wage gap between those who enter the most and those who decrease the least. Although the distance between both groups remains substantial, it is currently at historic lows, with employees with less purchasing power benefiting from, among others, a government policy of intense increases in the minimum wage over the last five years.
In average terms, Ceinsa anticipates that salaries will rise by 3.5% during 2024. A percentage slightly lower than its forecast for 2023, which was 3.7%, and which coincides with the estimates of other study houses. For example, returning to CaixaBank Research, its last recorded data for 2023 was a year-on-year increase in payrolls also of 3.5%.
Greater salary increase in the private sector than in the public sector
According to official statistics compiled by the Ministry of Labor in relation to collective agreements, the agreed remuneration increase closed 2023 also at 3.5%. Although the new agreements are being signed with higher increases, of 4.1%, according to the ranges agreed between the management and union leaders in the collective bargaining agreements. For 2024, the base increase agreed bilaterally between social agents is 3%.
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Returning to Ceinsa data, by company size, the employees who will benefit the most in terms of remuneration will be those of large corporations and those of medium-sized corporations. For employees of companies with less than 100 employees, the estimate for this year is that their salaries will rise by 3.4%; between 100 and 500 employees, 4.1%; between 500 and 1,000 employees, 2.8%; and from 1,000 employees, 3.7%.
The increases planned for private sector will be higher than those contemplated for the sector public. The Executive’s commitment to the unions is to increase public payrolls by 2%. And another additional 0.5% can be added to that percentage in the event that the CPI between 2022 and 2024 is higher than the increases accumulated in that period. Although the salary of the officials 2024 has started frozen, since the Government did not include in its omnibus decree of the last Council of Ministers of 2023 the revaluation of the salaries of public employees. The public commitment of the Executive is to apply said increase retroactively to January 1 and works to include it in the new general budgets of the State, still pending negotiation and processing.
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