2024-01-03 08:31:54
by Paolo Virtuani
The report in the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change: «Droughts, heat waves, winds and intense rains are expected to increase in the coming decades»
Over the next 40 years, Italian sea levels will rise by up to 19 centimeters and water temperatures will rise by 2.3 degrees. Glaciers have already lost 30-40% of their volume. These are the alarming data put in black and white by the Italian government in the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (Pnacc), approved by the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security. The decree of Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin was dated December 21st and was announced in detail on January 2nd. The Plan contains “over 360 actions aimed at natural, social and economic systems” to respond “to the challenge of climate change”. According to the ministry, it is «an important step for the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation actions in our country. The Mediterranean risks becoming increasingly hotter and undergoing profound changes.”
The objective of the Plan
The main objective of the Pnacc «is to provide a national framework for the implementation of actions aimed at reducing the risks deriving from climate change to the minimum possible, improving the adaptive capacity of socio-economic and natural systems, as well as taking advantage of any opportunities that may arise with the new climatic conditions”. «The national territory is notoriously subject to phenomena of instability, floods, coastal erosion, water shortage», we read in the document, «and it is already evident today that the increase in temperatures and the intensification of extreme events connected to climate change (droughts, heat waves, winds, intense rains, etc.) amplify these risks whose economic, social and environmental impacts are destined to increase in the coming decades”.
The projections
In the projections for the period 2036-2065, compared to the data from climate simulations for the period 1981-2010, the temperature anomalies range from +1.9 °C in the Tyrrhenian Sea to +2.3 degrees in the Adriatic (with +2, 6 °C on winter averages). As regards the rise in sea level, in the Tyrrhenian and Ligurian Seas it reaches up to 19 centimeters more. In 2022, precipitation was much lower than average, especially during the winter and spring in central-northern Italy, with -40% rainfall compared to the period 1991-2020 and several areas of Northern Italy experienced drought conditions severe and extreme. The summer was characterized by intense and prolonged heat; a heat wave hit the central and northern regions at the end of June, with maximum temperatures exceeding 38°C in several locations. The duration of snow cover in the valley bottoms and on the southern slopes up to 2,000 meters will be reduced by 4-5 weeks and by 2-3 weeks at 2,500 meters.
CO2 catastrophe without strong mitigation policies
In the worst case scenario, with intensive consumption of fossil fuels and without the adoption of any mitigation policy, by 2100 the level of CO2 in the atmosphere could reach 840-1120 ppm, four times more than pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm and temperatures will increase by 4.5-5 degrees. In an intermediate scenario, with some initiatives to control emissions, by 2070 CO2 concentrations fall below current levels (400 ppm) and atmospheric concentrations stabilize by 2100 at approximately double pre-industrial levels. In an aggressive mitigation scenario, however, emissions would be halved by 2050. With ‘aggressive’ mitigation strategies, greenhouse gas emissions begin to decline after about a decade and approach zero in 60 years with average global temperatures in increase of 0.3-1.7 degrees.
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January 2, 2024 (modified January 3, 2024 | 09:31)
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