2024-02-05 17:38:50
Faced with a country that he has thrown into turmoil, will Senegalese President Macky Sall’s lid hold? This Monday morning, the Head of State cut off the mobile Internet in Dakar and the demonstrators who gathered in front of the National Assembly were dispersed using tear gas. But, two days after Macky Sall’s announcement of the indefinite postponement of the presidential election, anger continues to intensify in Senegal.
“Compared to other surrounding countries, particularly in the Sahel, Senegal has until now never experienced a postponement of the presidential election or a military coup since its independence” in 1960, explains Michel Galy, political scientist and specialist. of Sub-Saharan Africa at the Center for Conflict Studies. Until now, the country was therefore considered a “model of stability”, notes Caroline Roussy, research director at Iris (institute of international and strategic relations) and head of Africa/s program. It is therefore a serious political crisis for Dakar, especially since the decision of Macky Sall, who promised that he would not run again at the end of his second term, took the country by surprise.
“Chronic, even irreversible instability”
“The political life of Senegal has never been a smooth river, it has experienced upheavals like in May 1968 for example. But, compared to its neighbors, it is a rather stable country, analyzes Caroline Roussy. This stability is called into question by this decision which could plunge the country into chronic, even irreversible, instability. » However, it is precisely to avoid “serious political unrest” that Macky Sall, according to him, made this decision.
In March 2021, following the arrest of opposition figure Ousmane Sonko, and in June 2023, after his conviction for “corruption of youth”, the country was shaken by violent demonstrations which left dozens of people dead. However, “this is the first time that we are talking about a ‘constitutional coup’ or a ‘civil coup'”, remarks Michel Galy who notes that the country is “plunging into the unknown”. “The Senegalese people have the presidential election on their minds, they refuse to have their vote usurped,” analyzes Caroline Roussy, noting in passing that the demonstrations are “only just beginning.”
“It may give some ideas”
The streets could plunge the entire country into violence so, for the moment, “the intensity of the gatherings remains relatively low,” notes Michel Galy. Especially since if the National Assembly is working on a six-month postponement, “as long as there is no fixed date, in reality it is a pure and simple cancellation”, according to Caroline Roussy. And even if the six-month deadline were met, this would cause the vote to take place in the middle of the rainy season, where torrential precipitation isolates many Senegalese.
The Community of West African States (ECOWAS) but also France, the European Union and the United States have expressed their concern. “I think the biggest risk is a Malian-style scenario where, after contested elections and large-scale demonstrations, the army took power and has not wanted to let go since,” explains Michel Galy, who adds: “ When we do not respect constitutional legality, it can give ideas to some people. » “The Senegalese army is renowned for being republican but we can no longer exclude a military coup, all scenarios are possible”, adds Caroline Roussy.
A dangerous game
By postponing the vote, Macky Sall obviously hoped to save time for his party. The head of state, in power since 2012, designated his Prime Minister Amadou Ba as candidate for power but the latter never managed to achieve consensus, even in his own camp. “He has difficulty establishing himself in the political arena, despite the support of Macky Sall,” confirms Caroline Roussy. The polls therefore predicted a second round where the presidential party’s foe was likely to lose to Bassirou Diomaye Faye, designated by opponent Ousmane Sonko to replace him.
“It is possible that Macky Sall will finally represent himself or that he will maneuver in order to favor his successor, in the hope that his camp will remain in power, even if he is no longer in power,” analyzes Michel Galy. Whatever his objective, the Senegalese president is playing a dangerous game and the clock is ticking. On April 2, he will violate the Constitution if he is still in power and the country “will then be unmanageable,” warns Caroline Roussy.
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