Brigadier General (res.) Prof. Yaakov Nagel, a senior colleague at FDD and former National Security Adviser and Acting Head of the National Security Council, spoke to “Maariv” and referred to the contacts regarding the taking shape of the abductees deal, the ongoing fighting in the Gaza Strip and the increasing escalation on the northern border.
Galant: “Sinvar does not lead the fighting – from the head of Hamas he became a fugitive terrorist”
“We need to understand that Israel is preparing for an all-out war with Hezbollah”
It seems that in fact no party is interested in a deal in the format in question. For Hamas it seems insufficient, while for Israel it seems too much – and for the US and Saudi Arabia it also seems a very partial solution. How do you see it?
“Basically, Sinwar does not change his position. Just as we have three war goals – the destruction and elimination of Hamas, the capture of its leaders and everyone who participated in the massacre, and the return of the abductees, Sinwar also has three clear and simple principles.
The first is a complete cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of all forces from Gaza. The second is his remaining in the leadership of Hamas and Hamas remaining in the leadership of Gaza without giving the keys to anyone else; He is ready for the Palestinian Authority’s participation in the elections and partnership, but control of the Strip will remain in his hands. The third – no changes – not in the borders, not in the buffer zone, nothing.”
Do you think these are iron positions?
“With Hamas, the beginning and the end are usually the same. In any case, this is Hamas’s position for the moment. There will be no full deal in such a situation. Maybe a partial deal, something like 35 hostages in exchange for 35 days of respite and the release of a certain number of prisoners. I hope Israel does not Agree to this, because it would be terrible. For him, there is no difference between 135 abductees, half of whom are alive and half of whom are no longer alive, and 100 abductees, of whom half are alive and half are no longer. So, as far as he is concerned, he will only benefit from such a deal.
We, for our part, will gain, of course, 35 hostages. If it is for a short period of one or two weeks, maybe Israel will agree, and that will be fine. But Israel wants a comprehensive deal, while Sinwar, as I know him, will not give up the central card and his insurance certificate called “kidnappers” until the last minute. That’s why I don’t see a situation where he returns all the abductees, because at that moment he just died, and he knows it for sure. If they hadn’t been kidnapped, he would have died a long time ago. That is why this is his position.
And as long as Hamas, the Sinwar brothers and Def, who are apparently in some tunnel in Khan Yunis, feel on the horse, they are in euphoria and will not move a millimeter, except that at the moment they feel some kind of movement in Hamas-Gaza compared to the hardening of positions in Hamas-Doha, in contrast to the situation until now when whoever was hardening more His positions were Sinwar and Hamas-Gaza, and this means that he is beginning to feel a sword beginning to hang around his neck. All this is solely thanks to the military pressure from our side. Straight and smooth”.
So why in this situation does Hamas-Doha decide to harden positions?
“They, for their part, want to convey a message: “We decide!” while Sinwar tells them in the clearest way: “I decide! Continue to be my officials!”, and he is right. “While you sit in luxury hotels and spend billions on your children, I am the one who suffers, and then I am the one who will decide! You will only be the messengers delivering paperwork!” – he doesn’t say it explicitly, but this is my free translation of his words.
And what about Israel?
“Israel wants a comprehensive deal and on the condition that it retains the right and ability to continue the fighting even after. I do not think that a truce of 35-42 days will not allow Israel to continue fighting. They were afraid of this last time as well. It is clear that the further the deal goes, the less likely it is to return to fighting .and I hope they don’t go into a 7 day break without getting anything at all.
The only political sentence I will say during the interview is that many of those who are now pushing for a deal on the Israeli side do not really want a deal. We all want a deal, but that’s not what drives all the protestors. They are interested in a deal that is as bad as possible – so that the government falls apart! what they want This is a deal that will break up the government.”
The Americans and the Saudis remained.
“Originally, the Saudis had four demands as part of a trilateral deal between Israel-USA-Saudi Arabia: a defense alliance between them and the USA, expansion of procurement programs, a nuclear fuel stockpile, including enrichment on Saudi soil, and some measure on the Palestinian issue. All four clauses remain, Only their order and content has changed.
The first – remained and even got stronger. They are afraid and they really, really want a defense alliance with the US and are willing to pay a lot for it. We want to expand procurement, and we can work things out on that. On the nuclear issue, I believe that they will also be willing to accept compromises because at the moment it is not the main issue. Whereas the Palestinian issue at the time was very Marginal because of the war increased in importance.
Biden’s mouthpiece, Tom Friedman, in an attempt to create a plan that gives something to everyone (and especially – to the USA in an election year) talks about three vectors. And the first vector is the release of the kidnapped. For their part, they are interested in a comprehensive deal so that Israel can present those released kidnapped as a justification for the next vector – Recognition of a Palestinian state, without this there will be no deal with Saudi Arabia. They are interested in establishing a new axis: USA-Abraham Agreement countries-Saudi Arabia-Israel-a renewed Palestinian state. What is “renewed”? When the Messiah comes, we will talk! And this axis is supposed to stand against the axis of Iran-Russia-China-Hezbollah-Houthis and all the little clouds. The third vector is talk that they have no choice but to engage in some sort of military activity in Iran.”
And what should each side gain from this?
“Israel will benefit from the hostage deal and aid in fighting together against Iran, the US receives in return a Palestinian state, and the Saudis – entry into the Axis and a defense alliance, with the payment from their side being the recognition of Israel. while the Palestinians will receive Gaza. I mean, there is an attempt here to sew a suit that fits everyone, but there are many, many problematic things in it. I am writing a whole article about this. But regarding the deal, the Americans and the Saudis are indeed interested in it. Those who go in other directions are Israel and Sinwar.
Having understood the multitude of positions, how do you assess the upcoming progress, if any?
“In my estimation, the chances are quite low. Unless Israel’s military pressure on Sinwar in Khan Yunis will be stronger and stronger, and he will realize that the sword is getting closer and closer to his neck, and we are getting closer to him, as well as to the abductees with all the inherent danger from his point of view. If Sinwar understands That being the case, it might be flexible.
If the conditions are similar to last time: the release of humanitarian abductees – women, children, wounded and possibly soldiers, but this is less likely, with a day of respite for each abductee and the release of light prisoners without blood on their hands and a return to fighting after those 35 days, such a deal Israel can Get. Such a deal will get us nowhere, but the IDF certainly has something to do to prepare for the next war in the north.
And at the same time it should be heard loudly and not only from Gallant, but from the entire government: unlike the previous time, the deal in the south will not necessarily lead to an end to the war in the north. There we still want to keep Hezbollah away beyond the Litani, to make sure that Hezbollah is not in a direct position on our settlements and cannot fire anti-tank missiles. And Hezbollah needs to know that if they come close to the fence, they will die – Israel needs to announce that in advance. And at the same time Israel can prepare continue.
At the political level and especially in the government, there is criticism that the IDF is not bringing satisfactory results as expected, this is when the transition to the third phase of the fighting is determined not according to the achievements, but according to a schedule.
“I really don’t like this sentence. The IDF works exactly according to the pre-planned plan! that’s a fact. And everywhere in the Strip it works in stages according to the operational situation. And today the IDF operates in the Strip in three different strengths.
In the north of the Gaza Strip, the IDF broke the military power of Hamas – there is no Hamas military structure there, no battalions, no companies, there are still many terrorists underground and even above the ground. I do not like a situation where Hamasniks go around dressed as policemen, handing out reports and the like. But in general, again according to the operational situation, in the north the situation has moved to phase C of the fighting. If necessary, every day it can return to phase B or A. Here, just this morning the IDF went on a raid in the north of the Gaza Strip. Stage C does not necessarily indicate low intensity. If there is a task, it can be carried out with the highest intensity. In the center of the Gaza Strip, the IDF is in the midst of Phase II.
Despite the release of Division 36?
“Because there is a need for less personnel! The IDF has already destroyed two thirds of the force, the last third remains. But the power is the same power. No need to leave unnecessary power. The IDF does what it needs to according to the operational need and attacks a target both above and below, in the tunnels. And in the south, Phase 2 has not yet started! And I claim that it may begin in the near future in Rafah, on the Filadefli axis.”
And this is exactly my question that could be critical: what is the fear of a massive attack in Rafah? Hurting the abductees? Egypt’s opposition?
“Everywhere there are live abductees. There are abductees in the north and in Khan Yunis, yet we attack. If we were afraid to attack because there are abductees, the IDF would not have entered Gaza. As for Egypt, Rafih does not belong to Egypt and I wish they would take him. Rafah belongs to Gaza, therefore Egypt cannot oppose an attack on Rafah. What bothers them is that in the event of an attack on Rafah, the refugees may break through a fence and run to Egypt.
Philadelphia is a different story, because there in the middle of the tunnel you cross into Egyptian territory. That is why an agreement with the Egyptians is preferable there, and I know that there is a dialogue with the Egyptians. And we need to solve the problem before we end the operation in Gaza.
And without the consent of the Egyptians, how much trouble could we get into?
“I am not a prophet. It should be noted that because of the Houthis, Egypt has now entered a terrible economic crisis. There is much less traffic in the Suez Canal, and revenues have decreased by 40%. Egypt has requested $10 billion in aid from the National Monetary Fund. They should not now be portrayed as breaking an agreement Peace with Israel. Maybe the peace will cool down a bit, ambassadors will be sent back for a month or two, but no disaster will happen. Still, it is better to act in agreement. But if not, no big deal, we will get along with the Egyptians, there will be no war.
Regarding the North, Israel is still in the concept of not mixing arenas. How realistic is the scenario of a Hezbollah attack that simply takes the initiative?
“I don’t like phrases like “no mixing of arenas”. The arenas are not mixed at all. There is a war in the north. You can call it whatever you want. And if it were not a war in the south, we would have been fighting inside Lebanon a long time ago. At the moment there is a convergence of interests between Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and the United States” B – each one and its reasons, but it can change every day.
Israel’s problem is the hourglass that may soon run out. Hezbollah has been hit hard and understands that no matter what our situation is in the north – it will steal. And Nasrallah, unlike Sinwar, cares about Lebanon. He would have preferred a ceasefire to return to what was, and Israel must not give him that. And I don’t see him starting a war right now.”
Despite all his speeches about being ready for war?
“They are ready for war if we attack, not if he attacks us. That’s why I repeat what I wrote in August about a pre-emptive attack: a pre-emptive attack is done when the other side is not ready. When the other side is ready, it is no longer a pre-emptive attack. It must also be remembered that when a war is started, You don’t always know how it will end. I remind you of the First Lebanon War and the stories surrounding it. That’s why Israel doesn’t start either.
Currently there are several options: either do nothing and even let them return to the border, but I’m almost certain that won’t happen, or continue diplomatic attempts to distance Hezbollah beyond the Litani – I give it a 30% chance – 13 points of disagreement is the chopper you want To give them, it has a political meaning as in the case of the terrible gas agreement we made, but it doesn’t have much practical meaning, either start a war, or swallow the saliva and get something that can bring the residents back.
This is not a real solution for Hezbollah – we will reach a war in a year and a half and we will reach an all-out war when Iran, which in the meantime is not interested in a war in the north and does not want Hezbollah to waste all the assets it has built for it, goes nuclear. An unwarranted situation. But first of all, the evacuees from the north must be returned safely. And of course, Israel will have to measure its forces in the north much more than before. She has no choice.”