2024-02-13 19:00:02
Elections are intended to bring, through the opinion of the majority, a decision regarding the identity of the leaders who will lead the country. However, there are situations where the results lead to an unprecedented upheaval, just as is happening these days in Pakistan. The elections led to many demonstrations throughout the country and currently, there is no decision regarding the identity of the next prime minister.
The general elections that took place on Thursday determined the division of the 336 members of the National Assembly – the lower house of the parliament in Islamabad. Even before the elections, the participation of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is in prison due to accusations of corruption, was prevented, and the possibility of running for candidates under his party – Tehreek-e-Ansaf (PTI) was also denied.
When that decision of the court was made, it is very doubtful if they took into account that the opportunity given to those members of Tehrik al-Ansaf to run as “independent” candidates would lead to an unprecedented situation because those contestants would receive the most votes. This happened at the end of a particularly stormy day, in which unusual events such as violations of media freedom and theft of ballot boxes were observed. The American Secretary of State even expressed her concern on the subject: “Allegations of interference and fraud should be thoroughly investigated.”
Seventh place in the core
Pakistan is a country that interests the whole world for three main reasons: its strategic location, the size of the population (fifth in the world) and above all: the nuclear arsenal. According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pakistan ranks seventh in the world in the number of nuclear warheads (170) – almost twice as many as Israel. Therefore, no one wants the same strategic strengths and knowledge to be given to dangerous parties.
The economy has taken center stage in Pakistan’s tumultuous election campaign. Today, about 40% of Pakistan’s citizens are below the poverty line, while the annual inflation rate was 28.3% in January. Local polls indicated that citizens were not optimistic about the state of Pakistan, with about 70% estimating that the economic situation would even worsen.
Imran Khan, former Prime Minister of Pakistan / photo: ap, KM Chaudary
In June, the country was on the verge of insolvency, when the foreign exchange reserves stood at about 4.4 billion dollars, which are barely enough for one month’s imports. At the same time, the local rupee eroded by about 50% against the dollar (one dollar equals about 276 Pakistani rupees ).
Fortunately for Islamabad, then Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif was able to get a critical aid package from the IMF at the last minute. Sharif’s government believed in an annual growth rate of about 2%, leading to a GDP per capita of about $1,470 in 2023. Besides, in the Human Development Index, Pakistan ranks 161st out of 191.
The mission: 169 seats
The final results indicate that each of the parties will have a difficult task to reach the majority (169 seats). While those independent candidates, who are mostly members of Tehreek-e-Ansaf, won 101 seats, the Muslim League party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif got 75 seats and the People’s Party (PPP) of former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari finished with 54 seats.
This situation did not stop supporters of cricket star and former prime minister Imran Khan from using artificial intelligence (AI) to produce his victory speech, even though he has been in jail since August. “You kept faith in me, and your overwhelming vote amazed everyone,” the AI version of Khan said.
The non-AI bottom line is that the results create several possibilities: Sharif and Zardari will together seek additional parties to reach 169 seats for the coalition; A connection between Khan’s people and other parties in favor of a majority that will determine the identity of the next prime minister; Zardari will try to jump between parties to find himself as prime minister; Or, that the army that ruled the country for nearly three decades will take control of what is happening.
“All the elections in Pakistan throughout the seven decades have dealt with various issues, including the election of the first woman prime minister in a country with a Muslim majority: Benazir Bhutto,” Ahmed Qureshi, a Pakistani journalist who has been covering the country’s national security issues since 2002, tells Globes. “Elections in Pakistan are largely successful the tests, but are always harmed by attempts at coercion – those that sometimes come from lobbies within the army.”
Protests about vote falsification
However, the concern of the countries of the world about the consequences of the election results in Pakistan does not arise from the future assessments, but from what is happening here and now. Already on Friday, protests erupted due to accusations of vote falsification and a slow vote count that lasted for about three days. In Shangla, in the northwest of the country, two were killed and 24 were injured in clashes between Khan’s men and policemen. Then, on Sunday, there were demonstrations in Islamabad led by Shoaib Shaheen, who is affiliated with Khan’s party, who lost the race for one of the capital’s seats to Tariq Fazal Chaudhry.
Shaheen did not accept the results, and joined hands with the parties Jamaat Ulama e-Islam (JUI) and Tehreek al-Labaik (TLP) for a joint demonstration in Islamabad against the results.
At the same time, Jamaat-e-Islami (JIP), one of the oldest parties in Pakistan, announced its own demonstrations in Karachi. “Stealing the Karachi mandate is unacceptable,” the party said. Alongside Islamabad and Karachi, demonstrations took place in other major cities, such as Lahore and Peshawar. That was not the end, and on Monday Khan’s supporters blocked roads.
Now, the big fear is that those demonstrations will turn into a large-scale event, one that will encourage the army, once again, to take over. The former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, has personally experienced a military coup. This happened in 1999, when Chief of Staff Pervez Musharraf carried out a bloodless military coup. The instability demonstrated in the streets today did not prevent Sharif from giving a speech in which he defined his party as the largest. On the other hand, the former prime minister admitted that he was looking for a coalition partner.
Sharif and the rest of the politicians received a clear message already on Saturday from the current Chief of Staff, Asim Munir: “The nation needs steady hands and a healing touch to move forward from the politics of anarchy and polarization which is not compatible with a progressive country with 250 million citizens. Pakistan’s politics and pluralism will be well represented in a unified government.”
“The biggest electoral robbery in the history of Pakistan took place in 2018,” concludes journalist Qureshi. “It was the biggest success of election theft in the country’s history when Imran Khan took power. He spent four years imprisoning political opponents and planned to stay in power for a decade, or more. His aides were even talking about 30 years.
“This time, his supporters presented him as a democratic underdog. Khan’s party was successful in the elections, but many millions also voted against Khan and his politics, which includes chaos, extremism and division. Pakistan is divided between Khan’s cult and those who oppose his populism.”
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