2024-02-15 03:49:50
The economic measures that were baptized in the Cuban streets as “the package” were unpopular, but necessary. Even from a cold economic calculation, they could seem insufficient and, above all, late.
The recent dismissal of the Minister of Economy, Alejandro Gil, shows that the slowdown in the increase in the price of fuel and public transportation is not exclusively due to an alleged virus or hacking of the Cimex networks, as has been reported, but to a change in policy to the detriment of the promoter of the “paquetazo”.
As is known, the main decisions made in Cuba must be consulted and approved by a trio of nonagenarians who hold the reins of power: Raúl Castro, Ramiro Valdés and José Ramón Machado Ventura. After they agree on some point, the Political Bureau decides, then the Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party and, finally, the complacent Parliament, which will gladly approve what is proposed by the Council of Ministers.
How does this triumvirate think and what motivations does it have? It is almost impossible to know, because it is motivated by biological, ideological and family commitment reasons that we can barely glimpse. Gil’s fate in the Cuban nomenclature, after his departure from the Economy portfolio, is still unknown, which leaves open the question of whether he has been defenestrated or if he has “fallen up”, as those who are jokingly known are jokingly known. They did not perform well in their positions and yet they rise up the ladder of power.
The calculation that the nonagenarians may have made is that if the “paquetazo” measures are put into practice right now, the social explosion could occur before the definitive time dictated by biology reaches them.
Perhaps Gil was too cautious and the Cuban leaders in olive green needed a face that conveyed greater speed and harshness in measures. Or, on the contrary, his name quickly became associated in Cuban streets with an acceleration in economic adjustments and this ended up triggering alarms in the historic generation that still holds the helm of the national ship in its hands.
Maybe it’s just a complex robbery. ring boxing This time, the almost centenary guardians of orthodoxy have won, expelling a technocrat from the ring. He’s been knocked out a apparatchik, but that doesn’t close the door for future fights. What has become evident is that the Cuban leadership no longer shows the solidity of yesteryear. He cracks and sends, to the population, the most unfortunate of messages: uncertainty.
If this is the purge between the fearful immobilists and the bureaucrats worried about economic asphyxiation who wanted small ways to preserve the system but ventilate it financially, the former have won. Gil’s departure may be celebrated, but it could be the worst news for the short-term future in Cuba. They used him as a scapegoat, but that does not stop inflation, nor does it revalue the Cuban peso, much less improve the content of the dishes on Cuban tables.
But, if this round The recalcitrants won it, so you have to know why.
The calculation that the nonagenarians may have made is that if the “package” measures are put into practice right now, the social explosion could occur before the definitive time dictated by biology reaches them. Prolonging the agony of the country and its population in exchange for not having to pay in life for the consequences of a disaster for which they are absolutely responsible demonstrates their deep selfishness.
Maybe the reckoning is not over. As the popular saying goes, “the goat that breaks the drum pays with its skin,” and if he is a scapegoat, even more so.
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