Yesterday’s decision by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to run for a second term in office has sparked positive reactions in several EU capitals. However, there are pitfalls lurking in the search for sufficient support from EU governments.
Countries with conservative governments, such as Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia and Finland, openly welcomed von der Leyen’s decision.
Greek conservative Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk as well as their own party, the CDU, also announced on Monday evening that they had nominated von der Leyen to run again. They confirmed an earlier report from Euractiv in January.
Von der Leyen will also find an ally in Bulgaria. The political agreement in the governing coalition suggests that Maria Gabriel, also a member of the EPP, will be elected Prime Minister in March. She replaces the incumbent Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov.
Gabriel said on Monday that von der Leyen was a proven leader who could cope well with the challenges facing the EU.
EPP circles said that von der Leyen’s decision was supported by the vast majority of EU heads of state and government as it corresponded to the needs of the time.
“In times of turmoil and uncertain equilibrium, von der Leyen stands for stability and continuity,” it continues.
But for von der Leyen to get the job, she also needs the support of some political opponents.
A tightrope walk
On the way to the elections, the presidential candidate will have to walk a tightrope.
On the one hand, she needs to win over those dissatisfied with the Green Deal and demanding a more “pragmatic” approach – including her own party.
On the other hand, it also has to deal with those who insist that the Green Deal must be pursued “with a red heart”, such as the Social Democrats and the Greens.
In addition, she must face the Liberals’ anger over increasing bureaucracy for EU companies.
Parts of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU have criticized von der Leyen’s participation in the Green Deal. They believe it has weakened the economy and increased bureaucracy.
Bulgarian MEP Radan Kanev (Democratic Bulgaria, EPP) described von der Leyen as one of the “strongest Commission Presidents.”
However, he pointed out that it carries “heavy political baggage” with the Green Deal, which was passed under the leadership of the Dutch Social Democrat Frans Timmermans.
“It is in a very difficult position vis-à-vis the EPP and the free-market political forces that are on the rise in Europe,” Kanev said.
“The main problem for von der Leyen is how she will approach the political issues of the Green Deal, how she will shake off the legacy of Timmermans in order to be elected for a second term,” Kanev explained.
However, EPP circles said that von der Leyen’s second term in office would be ambitious, politically pragmatic and results-oriented.
“There can be no place for liberal or partisan dogmatism in the next legislative session. We love the Green Deal, but it must go hand in hand with growth,” it continues.
“Europe is facing a shrinking industrial base and an aging workforce [und] Ursula von der Leyen will seek rapid countermeasures,” said the EPP source.
Von der Leyen seeks second term amid turbulent times
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she would run for the highest office in the EU again. It faces the mammoth task of holding the EU together in times of crisis and keeping the emerging right-wing forces in check.
The question of France and the Liberals
The European liberal party ALDE had already attacked the “EPP-led Commission” in the first sentence of its election manifesto for the excessive bureaucracy it supposedly created.
The liberal group in the EU Parliament, of which ALDE is a part, is expected to play the role of kingmaker in the formation of a centrist pro-EU coalition.
And it seems that they will play this card after the elections.
Valérie Hayer (Renaissance), the French chair of Renew Europe, said the current Commission had been successful and the EU Liberals were proud of the work they had done with their partners.
“However, there is still a lot to do before the end of the term. Without us, there will be no chance of getting a pro-European majority in parliament in the next legislative period,” she told Euractiv.
She added that the Liberals’ proposals must be reflected in the next Commission program.
“We urge the EPP candidate to resist the temptation to swing to the right. The EU is stronger when it is led from the center,” said Hayer.
She called on von der Leyen to stop delaying an initiative that would give the EU Parliament full legislative powers.
The Élysée Palace and the French Foreign Ministry could not be reached for comment.
However, a senior European government official told Euractiv that larger member states were generally happy with von der Leyen’s first mandate and were expected to back her.
“There are concerns, however, that she may be running the Commission too much like a one-woman show, making too many unilateral decisions and not coordinating enough with member states,” the official said.
“An example of this was their spontaneous trip to Israel after the October 7 attacks,” he added.
Paris had reacted sharply to the trip and said that von der Leyen had no authority to take the initiative unilaterally in foreign policy matters.
But von der Leyen could have even more problems with the liberals at home.
Moritz Körner, member of the FDP party executive and MEP, told Euractiv on Monday: “We as the FDP have already made it very clear in the European election campaign and at the European party conference that we are not satisfied with Ms. von der Leyen’s record in her first five years are.”
The President of the Commission has so far neglected the issues of economy and security, continued Körner.
Meanwhile, Renew Europe sources in Prague told Euractiv that the Liberals are also frustrated with the handling of Hungary’s rule of law cases.
Czech EU Affairs Minister Martin Dvořák (STAN), who does not belong to any European political family but is likely to join Renew after the EU elections, is open to a second von der Leyen mandate as well as a change.
“Von der Leyen has […] demonstrated their ability to lead the EU effectively in difficult times. I have no objection to her continuing in this role,” said Dvořák.
“I am of course open to the possibility of a change should a candidate emerge with a compelling vision,” however, he added.
He also stressed that the next presidency should be aimed at greater “efficiency, less bureaucracy and more competitiveness.”
Meloni’s delicate position
Von der Leyen will also seek the support of conservative Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (EKR), who leads a coalition government with the conservative Forza Italia (EPP) and the right-wing Lega (ID).
Forza Italia is for von der Leyen, Lega is against her.
Meloni, who sits on the European Council, is in a delicate position as she also heads the ECR, whose Polish member, PiS, also has unfinished business with von der Leyen.
Many in Rome suspect that if Meloni chooses von der Leyen, she runs the risk of splitting the EKR.
The co-chair of the ECR in the EU Parliament and member of the Fratelli d’Italia, Nicola Procaccini, recently told Euractiv: “Even if the election goes to Ursula von der Leyen [für die Kommission] If it were to fall, it would be under completely different political conditions than in 2019 and therefore more favorable for Italy and our government’s positions.”
Before European elections: Meloni and von der Leyen on a tightrope walk
EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen visited Italy again this weekend (January 27/28). Just a few weeks earlier, she had traveled to Forlì in Emilia-Romagna, which was affected by the flood disaster, together with the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Many in Rome assume that Meloni will support von der Leyen, as PiS did in 2019, to get a commissioner in the next commission.
The social democratic camp
The Social Democrats in the EU, who have nominated Nicolas Schmit as the top candidate for the EU elections and will strive for a top EU post, are not showing their cards.
Their election program insists on ecological change and rejects any “break”.
The SPD-led federal government did not comment in Berlin. However, Christian Petry, the European policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group, said von der Leyen had done a good job whenever she stuck to the EU Parliament’s agenda.
After the elections, von der Leyen could rely on Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who had already supported her for a second mandate in July.
For Ignacio Molina, a senior researcher at the Royal Institute ElCano, one of Spain’s most prestigious think tanks, “von der Leyen and Sánchez need each other.”
A second term for von der Leyen would mean a repeat of a European coalition of moderate forces against the rise of the anti-EU right, Molina said in an interview with Euractiv’s partner EFE.
“A European People’s Party (EPP), different from the Spanish PP, is good for Sánchez from a national electoral perspective, because the EPP is reluctant to make pacts with the ‘ultras’ and eurosceptic forces. The EPP has a good dialogue with the pro-European Social Democrats,” he said.