2024-03-01 00:09:21
Author: Elchin Alioglu
Source: Trend
It is clear that France is the source of the delay in the process aimed at signing the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the continuous creation of problems by Yerevan with artificial obstacles.
It is France that is currently the cause of new tension in the South Caucasus, the driving force of the next conflict and even a possible military operation, the author of the confrontation.
The meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan, held yesterday through the mediation of the German Foreign Ministry, of course, gives a reason for optimism, albeit a small one.
However, there should be no doubt that France will use all means to prevent any progress in the negotiation process and complicate the situation.
The leading geopolitical power of the European Union, aspiring to become the main competitor of the USA and China in the “old continent”, France sees our region as a new chessboard, in the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski.
The fact that Emmanuel Macron’s position on the region is observed by Russia and Iran with surprising coldness and even indifference in a certain sense can have a paradoxical effect.
On the surface, it is a strange situation: Russia and Iran, which have met the activity of the European Union, the United States or NATO in any country along their borders with too much irritation, panic and even anger, in the current situation, France’s activity in Armenia, Paris’s rapid arming of Armenians, obvious interventions in the course of Yerevan’s foreign policy and they calmly welcome him to make corrections.
The seemingly paradoxical situation actually has a very simple explanation.
There may be conflicts of interests and geopolitical conflicts in different parts of the world between big powers or countries trying to look big. But in certain regions, they take into account the interests of their competitors to ensure their interests. Sometimes it even happens that states that are ruthless rivals or even enemies become situational partners in the region with additional interests, or players who calmly observe each other’s activities.
This is the reason why Russia and Iran, whose foreign policies and ideologies are generally based on anti-Western narratives, observe France’s activity in our region and its total support for Armenia.
Another widespread and actually incorrect position is related to the fact that France’s main reference point in the South Caucasus is Armenia.
It is not so, because the main place where Paris is betting in the region is Georgia.
There is a strong French influence in Georgia’s political elites, power establishment and politics: many Georgian statesmen and politicians, especially the president, are trusted figures of Paris.
When it comes to Armenia, France intends to exert continuous pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey through Armenians and influence the balance of regional forces. The scenarios of Paris regarding our region do not contain elements that could lead to a conflict with Russia and Iran.
On the contrary, there has been an undisclosed partnership between Iran and France over the years.
European Union High Commissioner for Foreign Policy and Security Affairs Jozep Borrell is also trying to create artificial tension in the region by constantly making statements like “Azerbaijan is preparing to conduct military operations”. The goal is known: to facilitate the fulfillment of the order of France, which is trying to acquire geopolitical leading positions in the EU, to induce Azerbaijan to make some hypothetical concessions, and ultimately to create a political scaffolding of the EU in the region.
If Paris and Moscow are in almost mutually hostile positions at the level of military operations in Ukraine, their interests in the South Caucasus have not reached the level of strict antagonism.
As for the main goal of the French President Emmanuel Macron regarding our region, he is to change the local geopolitical realities, which official Baku has completely changed after the 44-day Second Karabakh War and the local anti-terrorist measures carried out by the Azerbaijani army in September of last year, to achieve a new geopolitical and geostrategic formatting of the region, and finally here To acquire the position of the leading country of the European Union.
Paris is not interested in the region’s crude oil or natural gas reserves, contrary to the claims widely spread by the French media and repeated in the Western mass media. Azerbaijan’s natural gas is not of particular interest to France, as the demand for electricity in the French domestic market is mainly met by nuclear power plants.
Another important interest of France is Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Romania or Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Bulgaria routes. These routes are mainly intended to transport goods from China to the European Union.
Iran’s goal is for Chinese ships to reach the port of Bandar-Abbas, where the goods are loaded onto railway trains and delivered to the European Union via the mentioned routes.
Both new routes are alternatives to the “North-South” project, where Azerbaijan is also an important transport hub and transit point.
Since Iran is currently one of Russia’s most important geopolitical allies, Russia calmly welcomes France’s activity regarding two hypothetical projects that could serve Tehran’s interests.
In addition, if the proposed projects come true, Russia may also consider the possibility of connecting the “North-South” project to one of those routes.
Despite the recent strain of relations between Armenia and Russia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s series of clearly anti-Russian statements, Moscow considers Yerevan a communication hub with France.
As for Iran, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecorneau, while on an official visit to Yerevan, did not accidentally say that “preliminary consultations have been held with Iran regarding our activities in Armenia.”
As for Nikol Pashinyan’s latest statement that his country may de jure suspend its activities in the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Yerevan’s departure from the CSTO will somewhat weaken Russia’s position in the South Caucasus, but it will not completely deprive Moscow of its leverage over events.
On the contrary, if, on the basis of France’s instructions and instructions, Armenia escalates the situation by resorting to new military provocations against Azerbaijan, Russia will be content with taking an ordinary observer position and issuing routine “concern” statements.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are currently facing a geopolitical group consisting of Armenia, India, Iran, France, Cyprus and Greece.
Although Nikol Pashinyan’s statements may seem strange at first glance, they fully meet Russia’s interests. It is not Moscow’s official policy that the Armenian authorities are subjected to harsh criticism in the Russian mass media, or that Russian political commentators and Anaties target Pashinyan.
The reality is that Russia does not want to take responsibility for Armenia and condemn relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Russia also understands that the geopolitical trio of France-Iran-India is currently forming.
This is a very serious challenge, a risk that will have a negative impact on the situation in the region.