The chances that Nacional has of qualifying for the 2025 Club World Cup

by time news

One of the main objectives of the National Football Club in this 2024 season is to qualify for the 2025 Club World Cup organized by FIFA, which will take place in the United States and will have the participation of 32 teams.

The medium-term dream is the Club Super World Cupsince we are the only Uruguayan club that can dream of that possibility,” stated its president. Alejandro Balbiwhile Soccer player Mauricio Pereyra highlighted that it is ‘the biggest goal of the year’.

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How could Nacional qualify for the 2025 Club World Cup?

On February 29, FIFA confirmed the qualification system for the 32-team “Super Club World Cup” that will be held in the United States in 2025.

South America will have 6 representatives in the tournament that will be played between June 15 and July 13. The last four CONMEBOL Libertadores champions and two teams will qualify by way of a Special ranking.

There are three South American teams that have already assured their presence: Palmeiras, champion of America 2021; Flamengo, winner of the 2022 Libertadores, and Fluminense, which won the 2023 edition. Brazil has no chance of adding another representative via ranking since there is a maximum of two per country with the exception of the champions, so that it could add a fourth representative in case a Brazilian team (other than Palmeiras, Flamengo and Fluminense) won the Cup this year.

Therefore, One of the ways for Nacional to qualify for the Club World Cup is to win the CONMEBOL Libertadores 2024 (In this sense, the Uruguayan teams Peñarol and Liverpool, already qualified for the group stage of the Cup, also have this possibility).

The other two places for CONMEBOL will be for the two best-ranked teams in the classification determined by FIFA and which contemplates the participation of the teams in the 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 editions of the Libertadores, and here is another possible path for the Bag.

It is worth highlighting an important rule in the classification criteria: in the Club World Cup there cannot be more than two teams from the same country, except in the event that more than two clubs from the same country win one of the latest editions of the maximum tournament. of clubs from their confederation (such is the case of Brazil). And, as Brazil already has three confirmed participants, the rest of the Brazilian teams will not be able to qualify through this ranking (they will be able to do so, as mentioned, by winning the Libertadores 2024)

In this ranking, each team is first awarded three points for each participation in the group stage of the Libertadores. From this point on, the clubs add three points for a victory and one for each draw, in addition to three points for each time they pass a round of the competition.

Currently, and considering only the teams that are still fighting for a place in the Club World Cup, Nacional is fourth in this ranking with 40 points which he obtained in the 2021 (11), 2022 (10) and 2023 (19) editions of the Cup. As an example, in the last season he added 19 units as follows: three for participating in the group stage, eleven for those harvested in Group B, three for qualifying for the Round of 16 and two for the two draws against Boca Juniors.

Boca Juniors (with 71 units), River Plate (64) and Olimpia (57) are the clubs that compete for the classification and are above Nacional, highlighting that Boca and Olimpia did not qualify for the Libertadores 2024, so they have no chance to add more units in this classification.

This opens up two paths for the Tricolor: the first would be to finish among the top two in the ranking and qualify without depending on who wins the Cup. In this case, the difficulty is very important, given that it would have to deduct 31 from Boca or 24 from River (the Millionaire will participate in the contest).

The maximum that can be added in a single edition of the Cup is 52 points in this hypothetical case: being runner-up by winning all the games and tying the final, this would be 37 points (twelve wins and one draw), to which would be added three to participate in the group stage and twelve to advance in the following rounds (to the round of 16, to the quarterfinals, to the semis and to the final).

Without considering being champion or finishing first or second in the ranking ahead of Boca or River, the third possibility arises from the ranking giving the classification to the team that is in third place.

This situation would only occur if a champion repeats (Palmeiras, Flamengo or Fluminense), which would give the ranking three places instead of two, or if River wins the Cup, so the Millionaire would not qualify due to his position in the ranking (currently second).

In any scenario where any of these four teams win the Cup (Palmeiras, Flamengo, Fluminense or River), Nacional (with 40 points) is forced to pass Olimpia (57) in the ranking and Independiente del Valle (with 38 points) , Barcelona de Guayaquil (37) and Cerro Porteño (37) do not surpass it.

To reach Olimpia, the Uruguayan team must add 17 points, which for example could be obtained with the three points for participating (for this they must surpass Always Ready in phase 3), eleven for the results in the Group and three more for qualify for the Round of 16.

Therefore, and On this path via ranking, the key will be to set the goal of reaching Olimpia with the points achieved in the group stage and that Independiente del Valle, Barcelona de Guayaquil and Cerro Porteño do not have a good participation in this Cup.

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