2024-03-10 21:17:24
The American magazine The National Interest published an article by a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute, Evgeny Chausovsky, dedicated to the upcoming Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), which will be held in Baku in November 2024.
We bring to the attention of Day.Az readers a translation of the article.
“When world leaders gather in Azerbaijan for the COP29 climate summit later this year, the event will serve as an important barometer in many ways. As with previous international conferences, it will take stock of global carbon emissions and assess international efforts to combat climate change The event will also be a major test of Azerbaijan’s ability to move toward effective climate solutions, but with these tests come greater opportunities, one of which is the potential for greater Western engagement with Azerbaijan and other countries in the Caspian region. not only does it have significant green energy potential that will help the US and EU strengthen energy security and combat climate change, but it is also strategically positioned to enable the West to address broader foreign policy challenges, from Russia and China to addressing instability in the Caspian Sea. Therefore, ahead of the COP29 summit, the West should focus on three key areas of interaction with the Caspian region.
The first is directly related to climate transition and cooperation on sustainable energy. Of course, significant steps are already being taken to expand such interaction between the West and the Caspian states. For example, just months after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of strategic energy partnership that envisages expanding Azerbaijani natural gas exports to Europe to 20 billion cubic meters per year by 2027. Last year, the United States intensified cooperation with Central Asian states in the C5+1 format, including hosting the first heads of state summit between US leader Joe Biden and the presidents of five Central Asian countries, and launching a dialogue on critical minerals to expand cooperation on clean energy. Through such memorandums and dialogues, the West must truly expand sustainable energy ties with the Caspian states. One way is to increase private investment from Western companies to complement US and EU government initiatives. This will not only allow the parties to contribute to reducing global emissions, but will also contribute to the climate transition in the Caspian region and propose specific projects to Azerbaijan at the upcoming COP29 summit.
The second area the West should focus on is competition with Russia and China. The latter became the largest trading partner of the Caspian region. And Russia maintains its position as the dominant security power in the Caspian Sea, including military bases in countries such as Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In recent months, however, both Beijing and Moscow have faced challenges to their positions. China has come under economic pressure on the domestic front. Russia’s military focus on Ukraine has exposed weaknesses in its status as a security guarantor in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Thus, the West has the opportunity to compete more effectively with both states. One way is to use cooperation in the green energy sector to create greater connectivity with and within the region, especially through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. Another way is to tone down the punitive approach and use a more constructive method. The United States, in particular, must achieve the repeal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which impedes trade relations with Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia.
The third area to focus on is the fight against instability in the Caspian region. As the recent military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has shown, Russia’s ability to play a mediating role has proven ineffective. And as the Armenian government openly talks about the need to reduce dependence on Moscow for security and seeks to expand ties with the West, it also provides an opportunity for Washington and Brussels to step up their activities in the region.
However, the West should not use this situation to support one side, which could be detrimental to peace. On the contrary, this could be an opportunity for the US and EU to develop diplomatic efforts and lay the foundation for further strengthening regional ties. While there are still political and diplomatic hurdles to be overcome in post-war negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the West and the Caspian states should encourage further engagement rather than politicize it. While political and diplomatic differences between Baku, Yerevan and the West are inevitable, they should be resolved more effectively to achieve common goals such as creating closer economic ties and facilitating the energy transition.
Indeed, the Armenian leadership has expressed a desire to establish energy and transport ties between East and West. Some progress has also been made on issues such as the delimitation of borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Such signals, along with Yerevan’s support for Baku’s initiative to host the COP29 summit, show that the possibility of diplomatic progress is real.
As COP29 approaches, the West and the Caspian region could benefit greatly. Expanded cooperation on clean energy can help strengthen regional ties, combat climate change, and promote stability. Of course, there will always be problems associated with each of these elements. However, the extent to which the West and the Caspian can jointly maneuver these challenges could have important implications for the upcoming COP29 summit and other events,” wrote Evgeniy Chausovsky.
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