2024-03-12 08:51:29
Author: Inglab Akhmedov, Doctor of Economic Sciences
Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar told reporters in Turkey last weekend about discussing three options for supplying Turkmen gas to Turkey – through the Caspian Sea, through Iran, through Azerbaijan.
The issue of possible gas transit from Turkmenistan through Azerbaijan and Turkey is not new; it has been discussed since the discussion of the Nabucco project (more than 20 years ago) and periodically appears on the agenda. Today, this issue is linked to Turkey’s desire to become an energy hub; it is Turkey that is currently raising it in more detail, because it is interested in being a serious player in the centralized supply of gas to Europe.
Yes, the EU has a demand for gas due to events between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and a possible gap needs to be filled. But in the current situation and in the near future, I think it is not realistic to build a serious transit pipeline from Turkmenistan through the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and Turkey and further to Europe. Why? Firstly, the current throughput capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is completely occupied by Azerbaijani gas, while Azerbaijan has new additional gas reserves for the expansion of the SGC, and then the question arises whether we need competitive Turkmen gas in the SGC.
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Secondly, it is not clear who will invest in the pipeline through the Caspian Sea. After all, the EU now does not even want to invest in the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor.
Also, gas transit through the Caspian has hitherto and continues to be hit by geopolitical obstacles, for example, the possible initiation of the issue of environmental protection of the Caspian by the Russian Federation and Iran.
I don’t think that Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Turkey will be interested in investing in the project across the Caspian Sea, taking into account these problems.
The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, apparently, will be on the “negotiating table” for a long time; now and in the near future there is no return to it, although the world is changeable, and we do not know future geopolitical situations. I think that the shortest way to deliver gas from Turkmenistan is through swap. It was tested through Iran, it can continue to work, and although small volumes were carried through it, it can be strengthened a little.
The swap channel is the most attractive, because gas from Turkmenistan through Iran can go (and has already gone) to Azerbaijan, and can also go through Iran directly to Turkey.
I think this method of delivering Turkmen gas to Europe is more realistic, but there is no need to talk about a large volume of transit through it.