2024-03-13 06:41:26
Trade review: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations
08:34
In Asia, trading this morning is in a mixed trend, the Nikkei closed this morning down 0.4%, the Shanghai Index down 0.3%, the Hang Seng up 0.4% and the Kospi up 0.1%.
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Wall Street futures are trading steady this morning.
Yesterday on Wall Street, despite the surprising increase in the inflation data that was published in the afternoon, technology stocks reacted with price increases, and mainly Nvidia which recovered after losing about 12% in the two previous trading days and rising by 7%. The same goes for a share Meta Platforms (Facebook) .
BTesla They breathed a sigh of relief after the electricity at the factory near Berlin returned, and this was a week after the fire that broke out in the factory, and this as a result of what is believed to be a deliberate arson.
stock oracle Soared following its financial results. The company reported a profit of $1.41 per share compared to expectations of $1.38. Revenues were $13.3 billion, slightly below expectations. The company’s CEO, Safra Katz, predicts that the company’s revenues will reach $65 billion in 2026.
stock Southwest Airlines Plunged by 14% after announcing that it plans to cut flights this year and in the process is reviewing its spending plan and plans to reduce the number of Boeing aircraft it owns. stock Boeing It also decreased by about 5%.
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In the American debt market, government bond yields traded during Tuesday in a mixed trend. The yield on the 10-year US bond decreased slightly and traded around 4.09%. The yield on the two-year bond rose to 4.54%.
Yonatan Katz and the economists of Leader Capital Markets explained in their weekly review that: “The bond market is beginning to realize that the potential for lowering interest rates this year has diminished, but the stock market is still optimistic.” In the commodity market, oil prices rose slightly during trading on Tuesday. The price of a barrel of Brent oil stood at $82, and the price of a WTI barrel stood at $77.9.
Bitcoin traded this morning close to its peak, $71,160.
Macro: The consumer price index in the US rose by 0.4% in February, in line with early expectations. On an annualized basis, the inflation rate surprisingly rose to 3.2%, when early forecasts expected 3.1%. Core inflation rose by 0.4%, early expectations It stood at 0.3% in February.At an annual rate, core inflation rose to 3.8% (expected: 3.7%).
● Annual inflation is rising, and interest rate cuts in the US are moving away
The CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, referred to the expected interest rate cuts and said that in his opinion the Federal Reserve should not start the interest rate cut in June and that he should wait and let things become clear, “If I were in their place, I would wait,” he said at the financial conference in Australia.
Modi Shafferer, Chief Financial Markets Strategist at Bank Hapoalim commented on the inflation data in the US: “The core inflation in the US was a surprise, this is the second month in a row upwards with an increase of 0.358% on a monthly basis, slightly above the expectation of 0.3%, although the annual rate of increase is slightly It moderated to 3.8%. On a more encouraging note, we note the downward trend in the proportion of small businesses reporting an intention to raise prices in the coming months.”
“Service inflation has not accelerated, but it is still higher than the level at which the Fed will feel confident enough to soon lower interest rates. This fact, combined with the second consecutive upward surprise in core inflation, does not support an interest rate cut in May, the market is now pricing in a probability of about 15% “.
Bank of America raised its 2024 S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) forecast to $250 from $235, citing a stronger economic outlook and corporate adjustments to the new environment. In addition, the bank provides for the first time a profit forecast for the year 2025 with an additional 10% increase from year to year to a profit of $275 per share. The bank also sees continued investment in artificial intelligence leading to a positive cycle of growth in a variety of sectors, with technology giants such as Microsoft and Amazon leading the trend.
Wall Street analysts expect upside for the stock Dark , and this despite the fact that it has dropped about 10% since the beginning of the year and is the most disappointing stock among the “Magnificent Seven”. Wall Street remains optimistic – out of 43 analysts in the FactSet survey, 25 rate the stock as a “buy”, 13 of them as a “hold” and only five recommend selling the stock. The average target price is $199.8 per share, about 16% more than yesterday’s closing price, $173.
“Significant wage increases in collective wage negotiations in Japan pave the way for the Central Bank of Japan to normalize monetary policy and remove negative interest rates.”
“Stabilization in economic forecasts and recovery in manufacturing activity make us more optimistic about stocks, as well as the fact that interest rates in the US and Europe are expected to decrease this year. We are neutral on US stocks and overweight on Japanese stocks. We like gold to hedge geopolitical risks.”
David Kohl, the chief economist at Julius Baer predicts that the interest rate in the Eurozone is expected to drop earlier compared to the American economy, “The Federal Reserve is expected to wait with the interest rate cuts in the US until the summer, while in Europe we may see the first interest rate cut as early as April.”
“The European Central Bank (ECB) is moving faster towards lowering interest rates, in light of the lowering of inflation forecasts in the European Union for this year and for 2025 and 2026. We think that the economic situation will allow the ECB to lower interest rates by 25 basis points already at its next meeting in April.”
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