2024-03-16 15:09:10
The energy portal Recharge Global News published an article by climate communications consultant Nick Medic on the upcoming COP29 event in Baku. We bring to the attention of Day.Az readers a translation of this material.
Since the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, parties to the convention have met 28 times since the first COP, as it came to be known, was held in Berlin in 1995.
The most recent COP28 in 2023 was hosted by the government of the United Arab Emirates in Dubai. COP29 will take place this year in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. This raised some eyebrows.
In approving the organization of these “negotiating sessions” (as COPs are called in UN parlance), the UNFCCC secretariat took a pragmatic approach. The domestic politics of each host country are separate from the main goal of combating climate change. Clearly, waiting until every member of the UN adheres to a certain standard of political behavior before the community of nations takes collective action to reduce emissions will get nowhere.
Another reason for separating politics from climate action is that it is not always clear how the former affects the latter. In 2020, the leader of the free world, the United States of America, withdrew from the 2015 Paris Agreement, the most important climate treaty in decades, thereby joining non-signatories Iran, Libya and Yemen. He has since reunited.
However, the US is still the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and has only a quarter of the renewable energy capacity of China.
But even if the UN wisely delegated the right to choose the host country to the parties themselves (since COP is held in different regions of the world every year and there are 5 designated regions),
Should the climate change conference, that is, the conference on reducing the role of fossil fuels in the global economy, be held twice in a row by major fossil fuel producers? Moreover, the UAE took advantage of networking opportunities at COP28 to negotiate oil and gas deals.
This is not just a reputational issue. Progress on the Paris Agreement has been sluggish. The treaty requires governments to act collectively to keep global warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, but the goal has proven elusive. Average global temperatures continue to rise. The UNFCCC wants countries to “communicate the actions they will take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement,” but resistance is coming from three directions.
Politicians in developed countries are concerned that climate action will affect living standards and therefore their own selectivity. Second, developing countries feel hurt by what they see as decarbonization limiting economic growth. Finally, many fossil fuel-producing countries do not seem to have a plan B for how to fill the GDP gap as the world switches to renewable energy sources. Consequently, they carry on with business as usual, even at a climate change conference.
A transition story worth telling
Fortunately, Azerbaijan has a better history of energy transition than most other countries. Yes, it exports about 80% of oil and gas. And yes, the International Energy Agency suggests that “Azerbaijan has approximately 2.5 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves… They are expected to continue to make a significant contribution to the economy in the coming decades.”
However, there are signs that under President Ilham Aliyev the country is preparing for a low-carbon transition by conserving its fossil fuel resources and developing a variety of renewable energy projects.
It is the only country planning offshore wind projects in the Caspian Sea, and is also developing the largest solar power plant in the Caucasus and Caspian region. Notably, Azerbaijan has recognized the importance of connecting to transcontinental supergrids, one of the proposed ways to manage fluctuations in renewable energy supply and demand. By 2030, it plans to export 5 GW of electricity through the proposed Caspian-Black Sea-European Green Energy Corridor. The country is partnering with Masdar, one of the world’s largest renewable energy companies.
Encouraged by these examples of international cooperation in the energy sector, Azerbaijani officials are expressing cautious optimism. COP29 President-designate Mukhtar Babayev said that “the climate challenge may be complex, but it is not insurmountable. Since climate change is a shared challenge, its solution can only lie in mutual support and collective action.”
These are encouraging words. What the world really needs is a successful example of a petrostate transition to low-carbon energy. An example that tells us that if they can do it, anyone can do it. And perhaps COP29 will offer us such an option.