2024-03-20 12:54:46
According to the estimate of economists of the American Citigroup bank, the probability of a recession in the world is close to 50 percent. It was mentioned in the report published by them, presented by Bloomberg.
Experts note that due to the crisis, inflation is increasing in the world, and economic growth is slowing down. Against this background, central banks raise interest rates, and consumer demand for goods decreases. According to the report, central banks of more than 60 countries have already raised interest rates this year.
“Experience shows that disinflation often leads to significant costs, so the probability of a recession approaches 50 percent. The central banks can still ensure the not-abrupt “descent” of the economies, which is in their and our forecasts, but for this it is necessary that the supply crisis weakens and the demand remains stable,” the report states.
According to Citigroup’s forecasts, the growth of the world economy will be 3 percent in 2022, and 2.8 percent in 2023.