2024-03-30 23:56:10
Author: Bayram Elshadov
A myth has been established in Armenia that Azerbaijan is preparing an “attack” and it will happen at any moment. If you look at how Armenian journalists develop this topic, you will notice that the question of an “impending attack” is one of the most popular. The dubious honor of answering such a question also fell to the EU Ambassador to Armenia Vasilis Maragos. Let us say right away that the EU Ambassador did not succumb to the provocation of the Armenian journalists and diplomatically avoided answering the question. But it suggested that no one had considered the reasons why the “attack” was nothing more than a fiction.
It should be noted that the myth that developed, at the instigation of Armenian propagandists, journalists and politicians, spread to Western countries. And some politicians in Western countries use these narratives to advance their political goals. Which, of course, does not make the myth any more true.
In the context of the reasons why the “attack” narrative is fake, the main thing is that Azerbaijan and Armenia continue negotiations. The negotiations are not simple, protracted, but they promise to bring peace to the region. Despite the difficulties, discussions between Baku and Yerevan yielded some results. For example, Armenia expressed support for hosting COP29 in Azerbaijan. Baku and Yerevan also exchanged military personnel in December. These two small achievements indicate that there is some small progress. And that “attack”, which Armenian and pro-Armenian journalists, bloggers and politicians of dubious reputation are constantly talking about, will undermine the progress achieved between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Another reason is that the mythical “attack” is not in Azerbaijan’s interests. The logic of this argument is quite simple. While Baku continues to invest in the restoration of the liberated territories, the outbreak of hostilities will create risks for Azerbaijan’s investments. And one of the most important rules of business is to protect your investments. Also, belligerent behavior will pose a threat to Azerbaijanis returning to their native lands. Agree that no country will agree to such irrational behavior, given that it will endanger the lives of its compatriots.
It should also be noted that the “attack” that Armenians imagine everywhere makes no sense for Baku. For Azerbaijan, the most important foreign policy problem was the restoration of full sovereignty over its territory. And this goal was achieved. And if we talk about war, about foreign policy and about their mutual connection, then it is necessary to emphasize that the key goal of military operations is to achieve foreign policy goals. And if so, then it makes no sense, since Azerbaijan has already solved its main task.
If you pay attention to the history of the conflict, from the very beginning to the present day, you will notice that Baku has always been guided and appealed to international law. And if Azerbaijan is really planning what Armenia unfairly accuses it of, then this will deprive Baku of consistency in its position.
In general, the “attack” that the Armenian side is so worried about is unrealistic. The reason for this is generally a constellation of economic and geopolitical reasons. It is obvious that by spreading a deliberately false narrative about the attack, Armenia hopes to extract political dividends, and this rhetoric is regulated from a single center. However, a very positive fact is that the EU Ambassador to Armenia did not succumb to the mass hysteria of Armenian politicians and journalists, which shows that there are diplomats who soberly assess the situation in the South Caucasus.