The beginning of the discussion of the project “Law of bases bis” It’s just around the corner and The Government has not yet guaranteed the votes for its approval. The tension between the Executive Branch and the provinces over the cutting direct transfers and automatic funds for education, transportation and retirement puts the parliamentary fate of the fiscal package in checkkey to the economic project of Javier Miley as well as to expose political solidity to the markets and the International Monetary Fund.
The date that the Casa Rosada defined to begin processing the revised omnibus law was mid-April. With meetings with governors and legislators from different spaces, the ruling party prepared the field during these last weeks for begin its treatment “with the agreements closed” and avoid a new parliamentary failure. However, the marches and countermarches of the libertarian administration erode negotiations and complicate consensus..
The Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Francos, was in charge of rebuilding the bridges that were broken after the failed passage of the first omnibus law by Deputies. Hilvanó, accompanied by the Chief of Staff, Nicolas Possemeetings with the three dialogue blocs in Congress: the UCR, Pro y We make Federal Coalition.
Meanwhile, the ten governors who pull the strings in this parliamentary trinity will be received by the emissaries of the Casa Rosada next Thursday. It will be within the framework of a rarefied climate, a product of the counterpoints surrounding the Government’s decision to cut the transfers that Anses makes to 13 non-transferred provincial pension funds. The governors Maximiliano Pullaro (Santa Fe), Ignacio Torres (Chubut), Rogelio Frigerio (Entre Ríos) and Gustavo Valdes (Corrientes), leaders of this league of leaders, had already complained about the delay in payments and warned once again about the possibility of going to court.
Although Francos tried to tone down the discussion and specified that “the games are there” but that “they were reassigned,” The bidding between the Nation and the provinces conditions the discussion of the fiscal package of the new “Bases Law”. The reimposition of the fourth category of the tax on Profits as well as the pension reform They are two thorny issues that still they do not have assured wills. It occurs along with the intention of some governors to share a portion of the tax on the check, something that the Casa Rosada refuses to grant.
The labor reform, included in DNU 70/2023 and suspended by the National Chamber of Labor Appeals, could be incorporated by the Executive Branch in the new initiative. It was a request from the “friendly” blocks of the Government, who see in the presentation of “mirror laws” the possibility of saving from the megadecree the measures that they consider most virtuous.
Retirements
Although the Executive Branch rushed through the issuance of DNU 274/2024 due to opposition pressure, that did not deactivate the discussion to impose a major recomposition in Congress. The Government sought to combine the current formula – which combines salary variation and Anses collection – with the new modality of updating by the consumer price index (CPI), which would only be applied in July.
This transition mechanism designed by the Government for the months of April, May and June, which preserves the fiscal accounts of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoresult insufficient for the oppositionwhich intends for the Government to contemplate the purchasing power lost during January, when a 20,6% of inflation.
For this reason, the president of the Deputies’ Welfare and Social Security Commission, the radical Gabriela Brouwer de Koning (Córdoba), anticipated that it will drive the discussion of the 16 projects at stake. It is expected that during the first week of April officials from the corresponding area will be summoned to open the debate. Its work schedule aims to issue an opinion by the end of the month. However, this office could find a brake in the Budget commission, led by the brand new official deputy, José Luis Espert (Buenos Aires), who refused to work in a plenary session to speed up the parliamentary process. Its approval in the chamber without the endorsement of this last commission will require a special majority.
The rejection of Unión por la Patria is added to the decision of the Government of pay in two installments retirements and pensions for the month of April. Your block leader in Deputies, German Martinezhe announced that will seek to obtain a commission opinion prohibiting this split.
DNU 70/2023
The resistance to Milei’s deregulation megadecree, promoted by Kirchnerism, dissident Peronism and some Patagonian governors from the Senate, found a brake in Deputies. Without the votes for its definitive rejection, both the left and Unión por la Patria are not considering for now asking for a special session to bring their discussion to the premises, although they will seek to discount the twenty or so wills that are missing to reverse the measure.
The UCR, We Make a Federal Coalition and Federal Innovation They question the constitutionality of the Government tool. Nevertheless, For now, they will avoid joining the offensive to reject Kirchnerism and oppose a president who still has high approval ratings. They will use their intermediate position as a bargaining chip with both the Casa Rosada and the intransigent opposition.
delegated powers
In the draft of the new “Bases Law”, the Executive contemplates a reduction in the emergencies for which it seeks to have special powers: of the eleven delegated powers originally claimed, now intended four authorizations from Congress. But a hard core of around 119 deputies reluctant to grant these prerogatives to the Casa Rosada is only ten wills away from stopping the President’s aspirations in the venue.
The Unión por la Patria, the left, the Civic Coalition, the socialists and the five rebels of the UCR could be accompanied by a handful of radicals close to the president of the party, Martin Lousteau, who is in a declared war against Milei and his troop. The same attitude could be adopted by the two deputies close to the Santa Cruz governor, Claudio Vidalwhich maintains a silent battle with the Casa Rosada over the 1,800 layoffs at the Néstor Kirchner and Jorge Cépernic dams, paralyzed due to lack of financing.
Labour reform
The “bis” omnibus bill could include the labor reform chapter contemplated by the DNU and which was stopped by Justice. In fact, the Pro block boss, Cristian Ritondo, a satellite of the ruling party, presented an initiative in this regard together with its peers. The impulse of “mirror laws” It is supported by UCR and We Make the Federal Coalition, which seek with this mechanism to shield the DNU measures that they intend to save.
The project seeks, among other things, to extend the trial period, encourage and simplify labor registration with social security benefits, and declare essential services to key areas to overcome the weight of union demands and guarantee their provision.
Profits
This point breaks the logic of parties and divide the positions by geographical areas. While The governors of the north would be willing to compensate their fiscal redundancies with this co-participatory tribute, the Patagonians flatly refuse. because it would affect almost its entire active population. Those in the center, meanwhile, led by the Cordoban Martin Llaryorathey seek to raise the non-taxable minimum and talk about turning it into a tax on large fortunes.
The most resistant to reimposing the tax are the Patagonians of Río Negro, Chubut, Neuquén, La Pampa and Santa Cruz, the same ones who in the Senate lowered their legislators to reject Milei’s megadecree. As compensation, they want to share a portion of the check tax or a portion of the PAIS tax. Neither of these two options are welcomed by the Executive Branch, which looks closely at the fiscal accounts to advance its economic project.
Negotiations on this point are stalled. For this reason, Francos traveled to Salta last week and was solicitous of the leaders’ request for the Nation reactivates public worksstopped since the libertarian landing in the Casa Rosada.