2024-04-01 17:55:32
While the Carrington event may seem like a thing of the past, many worry about what would happen if an event as powerful as—or even more powerful than—hit Earth today, when humanity is much more dependent on electricity.
in 1859 The Carrington Incident
in 1859 At about 11:18 a.m. on Thursday, September 2, Carrington was studying a group of dark spots on the Sun (Sunspots) in Redhill, near London, and noticed what he later described as “an extraordinary burst of light that lasted about five minutes.”
It was the first solar flare ever observed and recorded, according to a 2016 study. in a study published in the journal Advances in Space Research.
Magnetic sensors at Kew Observatory in London that year from August 28. until September 7 Recorded extraordinary magnetic disturbances on Earth, especially on August 28. and September 2 They coincided with perhaps the most intense auroras in the last 160 years, noted a 2016 study. in the study.
“Waves of light rolled in quick succession to the zenith, and some of them were of sufficient brightness to cast a perceptible shadow on the Earth,” in 1859. September 6 by the Times of London.
According to the Weekly West in 1859 of the message, the lights were so bright that residents of Missouri (USA) could read after midnight using an outdoor light. Gold miners in the Rocky Mountains woke up at 1 a.m. at night local time they made coffee, had a snack of bacon and eggs – thinking that the Sun had risen here on a cloudy morning, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The northern and southern lights usually appear near the planet’s poles. But during the Carrington event, people saw auroras in the tropics — including Cuba, Jamaica and Panama, notes a 2016 report. in the study.
Auroras were also seen in the southern hemisphere. For example, it is written in 1859. September 7 A report in the Moreton Bay Courier newspaper tells how in Moreton Bay, Australia, “most readers saw the Northern Lights on three nights last week, starting after sunset and lighting up the sky in a brilliant shade of red,” noting the 2016 in the study.
Meanwhile, the telegraph lines experienced “one of the most surprising and extraordinary electrical phenomena”: an “excess of electricity in the air” enabled telegraph machines to send messages from New York to Pittsburgh without batteries, in 1859. by the Washington Star.
in 1859 September 24 The Illustrated London News said in a report, that sparks flew from telegraph machines in Paris, and telegraph operator Frederick Royce reported in Washington that he had experienced “a very violent electric shock which stunned him for an instant,” in 1859. September 5 rašė „The New York Times“. “An old man sitting in front of me, who was a few feet away from me, said he saw a spark of fire jump from my forehead,” Royce said.
in 2016 in total, the Carrington event affected almost half of the telegraph stations in the United States, according to the study.
What caused the Carrington incident?
By NASA, Solar flares, the largest flares in the Solar System, are intense bursts of plasma and radiation associated with sunspots. The Sun causes solar flares, when the magnetic energy stored in our star is suddenly released, in 2021. žurnale „Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics“ paskelbtame tyrime writes Hugh Hudson, a solar physicist at the University of Glasgow in Scotland.
Solar flares are often accompanied by the eruption of giant bubbles of solar material called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These eruptions can contain billions of tons of plasma—clouds of electrically charged particles—that can travel at millions of kilometers per hour, notes NASA.
H. Hudson 2021 study estimated that the radiation from the Carrington flash likely had about 4 X 1032 ergs of energy – that is, the same as 10 billion 1 megaton nuclear bombs. He also estimated that the event’s CME likely had about 3 X 1032 ergs of kinetic energy.
The flash likely triggered a coronal mass ejection that showered our planet with high-velocity clouds of superheated plasma, interspersed with intense magnetic fields. When such eruptions hit Earth’s magnetosphere—the layer surrounding the planet that contains plasma trapped by Earth’s magnetic field—this plasma can flow down the planet’s magnetic field lines and bombard molecules in Earth’s atmosphere, creating the auroras.
Solar flares can also cause intense electrical currents in the magnetosphere, according to NOAA. These currents, in turn, can cause magnetic disturbances in the Earth, which can cause electric currents to flow through long stretches of electrically conductive materials, such as power lines, telecommunications cables and pipelines.
Geomagnetic storms can devastate the Earth. in 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power to the entire Canadian province of Quebec within 90 seconds and, According to NASA, 6 million users were left in the dark for nine hours. It also damaged transformers as far away as New Jersey (including in a nuclear power plant) and nearly destroyed US power grids from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest.
Geomagnetic storms can also disrupt radio communications and GPS navigation by distorting the atmosphere in ways that alter the paths of radio signals, NOAA notes. For example, in 2003 the so-called Halloween storm left the Federal Aviation Administration unable to provide GPS navigation guidance for about 30 hours, according to a 2011 report. USA In an investigation commissioned by the Department of Homeland Security.
The Sun’s plasma can also heat up the planet’s upper atmosphere, causing it to swell and drag satellites in low Earth orbit. called NOAA.
What if the Carrington incident happened again now?
The world has become far more dependent on electricity than it was when the Carrington incident occurred. If an equally powerful solar flare were to happen now, directed at Earth (rather than on the other side of the Sun from our planet, where it would have no direct consequences for our world), it could cause unprecedented damage.
For example, in 2013 British insurance giant Lloyd’s of London in the study conducted it is estimated that a Carrington-level event could cost the North American energy industry alone up to $2.6 trillion in lost power due to power outages. The study also found that global power outages could last up to several years, as such an event could simultaneously damage many extremely high-voltage transformers that are difficult to replace. This in turn could cause severe disruption to financial markets, banking, telecommunications, business transactions, emergency and hospital services, water, fuel and food transportation.
Similarly, in 2017 in a study published in the journal Space Weather it was found that in the case of the most extreme blackout scenario, which would affect 66 percent of of US residents, daily economic losses within the country could reach 41.5 billion. dollars and another 7 billion dollars in losses due to international supply chain disruptions. And if only the extreme northern states, where 8 percent live, were affected. of the US population, the economic losses per day could reach 6.2 billion. dollars – and 0.8 billion dollars in international supply chain losses. (Research conducted using 2011 US dollar value)
But while the Carrington event was powerful, “we’ve seen similar events since,” says Hudson. For example, in 2003 two so-called Halloween solar flares may have emitted similar amounts of radiant energy to the Carrington event.
Therefore, the scientist suggests that a solar flare similar to the Carrington event may not pose as great a threat to humanity as some fear. Still, an Earth-bound analogue of a Carrington event “would have significant impacts, mainly on human activities in space.”
“We don’t have much practice for such an event because space instruments have not yet been exposed to an event of this magnitude,” notes the scientist. Indeed, the Apollo astronauts went to the moon during the height of solar activity — but “it was on a smaller scale, but still very dangerous for unprotected humans in space,” notes Hudson.
In addition, there is evidence that the Sun may be capable of producing “superflares” that can release 10 times or even more energy than the Carrington event. For example, in 2021 in a study published in the Astrophysical Journal scientists using NASA’s now-defunct Kepler space telescope found that over four years, 15 Sun-like stars emitted 26 superflares with up to 100 times the energy of the Carrington event. in 2020 in a study published in the Astrophysical Journal similar results were found during the first year of NASA’s TESS mission.
In addition, when analyzing the tree trunks, scientists found traces of radioactive carbon-14 atoms, which have two more neutrons in their nuclei than ordinary carbon atoms, formed during solar explosions. Spikes in carbon-14 levels observed in 660 BC. Ave. me, 774 mem and 994 mem could have been caused by superflashes that were much stronger than the Carrington event, Hudson says.
“It is noteworthy that even the Carrington event or conventional events of similar mass are not detectable using the carbon-14 method,” the scientist points out. “So these ancient records are ominous.”
When is the next such event likely to happen?
in 2024 February 29 A study published in the journal Space Weather examined the strength of the Carrington event in 1859. digital copies of magnetic field recordings. Based on the readings, the researchers concluded that Carrington-level events likely occur once every 100 to 1,000 years. But without knowing exactly how powerful this event was, scientists can only speculate on how often these types of solar flares can occur.
2021 m. in a study published in the Astrophysical Journal, which analyzes the Kepler data, suggests that superflashes about 10 times stronger than the Carrington event can occur about every 3,000 years, and about 100 times stronger about every 6,000 years. However, our Sun’s frequency at which Carrington-like or more powerful flashes can occur “is not well known,” Hudson points out.
As for the solar flares that can release the large spikes of carbon-14 seen in tree trunks, scientists now know of at least half a dozen such bursts “scattered over the Holocene, or 10,000 years,” the scientist notes.
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2024-04-01 17:55:32