Washington considers Russian invasion of Ukraine possible ″at any moment″ | News from Germany about Russia

A Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the US administration, could happen at any time. A military strike is possible, including before the end of the Olympic Games in Beijing until February 20, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said during a visit to Melbourne on Friday, February 11, where he met with colleagues from Australia, India and Japan.

“Now we are in a time period in which the invasion can begin at any moment,” he stressed. At the same time, the head of the American foreign policy department indicated that Russia continues to mobilize forces in regions near the border with Ukraine.

US Secretary of State again warned of tough Russian response

Thus, Blinken refuted the assessments of some experts who consider it unlikely that a military escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine during the Olympics and at the same time pointing to the arrival of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the opening of the Games. During the visit, he met with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the parties demonstrated solidarity on international policy issues, AFP notes.

At the same time, Blinken once again warned of the serious consequences of a possible Russian military aggression against Ukraine. According to him, the West has already outlined a list of tough sanctions, including economic and financial measures, export controls, support for Ukraine and the strengthening of NATO.

US and Canada urged their citizens to leave Ukraine

The day before, US President Joe Biden called on Americans in Ukraine to immediately leave the country because of the threat of war with the Russian Federation. “We are not dealing with a terrorist organization, but with one of the largest armies in the world. This is a different situation, and things can quickly get out of control,” he said on NBC. At the same time, Biden pointed out that under no scenario is he ready to send the US military to Ukraine to evacuate US citizens, because “when the Americans and Russians start shooting at each other, it will be a world war.”

Following Washington, the Canadian authorities also called on their citizens to immediately leave Ukraine. The corresponding statement is posted on the website of the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

According to the West, Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops to the annexed Crimea and to the border with Ukraine. The West is calling on Moscow to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border and is threatening unprecedented sanctions. Russia, on the other hand, accuses Western countries of arming Ukraine and carrying out maneuvers near the borders of the Russian Federation, and also demands the provision of “security guarantees” to it. The January series of talks between Russia and the United States, NATO and the OSCE did not bring results, as did other meetings between representatives of Western countries and the Russian leadership. On February 10-20, joint military exercises with Russia are being held in Belarus.

See also:

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the creation of the CIS
In December 1991, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus documented the collapse of the USSR. Moscow obviously hoped to maintain its influence through the CIS and cheap gas supplies. But it turned out differently. The Russian Federation and Belarus created a union state, Ukraine increasingly looked to the West. In the photo: Leonid Kravchuk, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Boris Yeltsin and Stanislav Shushkevich during the official founding of the CIS in Almaty.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Legacy of the USSR and the Budapest Memorandum
Ukraine inherited from the USSR almost a million strong army and the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Kiev refused the missiles, handing them over to Russia in exchange for economic assistance and security guarantees (Budapest Memorandum of 1994). While the West did not reciprocate Kiev and was not going to integrate it into its structures, the reaction of the Russian Federation was restrained. In the photo: Russian and US leaders Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Cracks in Post-Soviet Friendship: Tuzla Conflict
The first major diplomatic crisis between Moscow and Kiev occurred under President Putin. In the fall of 2003, Russia suddenly began building a dam in the Kerch Strait towards the Ukrainian island of Tuzla. Kiev considered this an attempt to redistribute borders. The conflict was resolved after a personal meeting of the presidents. Construction was stopped, but the first cracks appeared on the facade of friendly relations between the two countries.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Orange Revolution 2004
In the presidential elections in Ukraine in 2004, the Russian Federation actively supported the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych, but the Orange Revolution prevented him from winning amid accusations of fraud. Pro-Western politician Viktor Yushchenko became president. His victory became the starting point for changes in the policy of the Russian Federation, designed to prevent what Moscow calls “color revolutions.”

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Shutting off Ukraine’s “gas valve” in the 2000s
During Viktor Yushchenko’s presidency, the Russian Federation twice shut off the “gas valve” to Ukraine – in 2006 and 2009, which led to interruptions in transit supplies to Europe. In the photo: a Gazprom employee at the Sudzha gas measuring station, 200 meters from the Ukrainian border, Kursk Region, Russia, 2009.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The promise of NATO membership
The key event happened in 2008. At the NATO summit in Bucharest, US President George W. Bush tried to get Ukraine and Georgia to receive a Membership Action Plan (MAP). Putin sharply objected, making it clear that he did not fully recognize the independence of Ukraine. As a result, Germany and France blocked Bush’s plan. Ukraine and Georgia were promised NATO membership, but no date.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Ukraine’s course towards the European Union
It was not possible to move quickly towards joining NATO, and Ukraine set a course for economic rapprochement with the EU. In the summer of 2013, the Russian Federation began to exert massive pressure on Kiev, almost cutting off Ukrainian exports at the border. The Yanukovych government has suspended preparations for signing an association agreement with Brussels. Soon protests began in Ukraine, in February 2014 Yanukovych fled to Russia.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Russian annexation of Crimea
A power vacuum emerged in Ukraine, in March 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. This was a turning point, the beginning of an undeclared war. Pictured: Russian military in Crimea (Simferopol, March 2014).

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
War in Donbass
At the same time, Russian and local paramilitary structures provoked an outbreak of separatism in the Donbass, “people’s republics” were proclaimed in Donetsk and Lugansk, which were led by people who had come from the Russian Federation in unmarked uniforms. Kiev reacted slowly, waiting for the presidential elections at the end of May 2014, and only then decided on a large-scale use of force.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Birth of the Normandy Format
In early June 2014, in France, at events marking the 70th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy, newly elected President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met for the first time with his Russian counterpart Putin through the mediation of the leaders of Germany and France. This is how the “Norman format” was born.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
“Ilovaisky cauldron”
In the summer of 2014, the Ukrainian army began to push back the separatists, but at the end of August, Russia, according to Kiev, used its army on a large scale in the Donbass. Moscow denies this. The peak of the conflict was the defeat of the Ukrainian forces near Ilovaisk. The war along the entire front line ended with the signing of a ceasefire in Minsk in September, which was quickly broken.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
Positional war continues
In early 2015, the separatists went on a broad offensive. Kiev accused Moscow of using an unmarked army, the Russian Federation denied everything. Ukrainian forces were defeated near the city of Debaltseve. Then, with the mediation of Germany and France, “Minsk-2” was signed, an agreement that still remains the main document for resolving the conflict. None of its points has been fully implemented.

A Brief History of the Ukrainian-Russian Confrontation
The concentration of Russian troops on the border of Ukraine
In 2021, there was a new aggravation. Russia twice, in spring and autumn, drew up its troops to the western borders. Ukrainian and Western intelligence reports about the threat of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. To defuse the situation, a series of international negotiations took place in the West. However, the Russian Federation demands guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO and lets know that it is not going to withdraw troops yet.
Author: Roman Goncharenko