2024-04-10 08:31:39
The failure of negotiations between unions and employers on career paths and the employment of seniors during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday deals a hard blow to parity. It also throws into vagueness the future of the unemployment insurance agreement that unions and employers concluded in November, even if Gabriel Attal had promised it a limited lifespan anyway.
To understand this drawer effect, we have to go back to August 2023. At the end of a long recovery, the Borne government is obliged to give control back to the unions and employers to establish the next Unédic convention. That is to say, changes to the rules for unemployment compensation for the period 2024-2027.
A big downside
Despite very limited room for negotiation, the social partners still agree to negotiate. Result ? A minimum agreement concluded in mid-November by Medef, CPME, U2P on the employer side, CFDT, CFTC and FO on the union side. At the very least, and above all accompanied by a big downside.
To take into account the pension reform, the unions accept that the agreement shifts by two years the age limits giving entitlement to an increased period of compensation (senior measures). The result is 440 million euros in savings for Unédic! Refusing to give up prey to the shadows, they however pose a condition: employers will have to prove that they will promote the continued employment of employees at the end of their careers.
The failure of negotiations during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday on professional routes brought down this arrangement. The meeting planned for this Wednesday morning to ratify the senior amendment to the convention has also been postponed. The November agreement provided that in this scenario (failure of the negotiation), a meeting between the State, the social partners and Unédic would be held to see how to find the 440 million savings without which the balance financial of the convention falls apart.In the meantime, it stays in the fridge.
Will this three-way meeting take place? Questioned on TF1 this Wednesday morning, the Minister of Labor, Catherine Vautrin, declared that she was awaiting information from the social partners. Will the latter stick to what was planned or ignore it, that is to say, still ratify the senior amendment, and the entire agreement, so as not to immediately give hand to the government? At this stage, everyone has retreated to their decision-making bodies before making a decision.
One thing is certain, Gabriel Attal wants a new reform of unemployment insurance because he believes that the compensation rules still do not provide enough incentive to return to work when so many jobs remain vacant. Among the avenues put forward is that of a further reduction in the maximum compensation period “by several months but not below 12” he said, even if it meant raising criticism within the majority.
New countercyclicality threshold?
To make things easier, will the government condition this new turn of the screw on a reduction in the unemployment rate? This is what was envisaged at the end of 2022 when the principle of countercyclicality – more protection for the unemployed when hiring is scarce, more incentive to return to work when there is an abundance – entered into law.
Under this principle, compensation periods were reduced by a quarter. They will return to their initial values if the unemployment rate rises above 9% of the active population (it is currently 7.5%). At the end of 2022, the executive hesitated to establish an additional threshold in good times, 6% in this case, below which the compensation periods would be further reduced. Without finally following up.
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